SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - China is widely
expected to hold benchmark lending rates steady on Monday, a
Reuters survey showed, although expectations are growing for a
cut in the mortgage reference rate as the authorities scramble
to boost housing.
The loan prime rate (LPR), normally charged to banks' best
clients, is calculated each month after 20 designated commercial
banks submit proposed rates to the People's Bank of China.
The survey of 33 market watchers, conducted this week, found
27, or 82% of all respondents, expect the one-year
and five-year LPRs to stay
unchanged.
Among the other six respondents, four predicted a steady
one-year LPR but a five- to 20-basis-point reduction to the
five-year tenor, while the remaining two projected similar cuts
to both rates.
Most new and outstanding loans in the world's second-largest
economy are based on the one-year LPR, now at 3.45%. The
five-year LPR, which serves as the mortgage reference rate, is
at 3.95% after a February cut to shore up the property market.
In the latest step to support property, China will allow
local government authorities to buy some homes at "reasonable"
prices to provide affordable housing, the official Xinhua news
agency said on Friday. The property sector and weak retail
continued to drag on the economy last month, even as industrial
output beat forecasts, data showed on Friday.
The central bank left a key policy rate unchanged when
rolling over maturing medium-term lending facility loans on
Wednesday, as a weak currency continued to constrain Beijing's
monetary easing efforts.
Some traders argued that the traditional dividend payment
season is looming, when overseas listed Chinese companies have
to make foreign exchange purchases to fulfil such payouts to
their offshore shareholders.
Such FX payments are expected to pile additional downside
pressure to the yuan, which has lost about 1.8% to a
resurgent dollar this year. HSBC expects $66 billion worth of
dividends are set to be made this year.
However, expectations for a cut to the mortgage reference
rate are on the rise after the authorities announced a string of
measures to rescue the beleaguered property market, long
considered a major drag on the economy.
"Further property de-stocking efforts and timely RRR/LPR
cuts as well as the push on equipment upgrade and durables
trade-in are essential, in our view, to bring back credit
demand," Citi analysts said in a note.