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China set to keep lending benchmark LPRs unchanged in April
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China set to keep lending benchmark LPRs unchanged in April
Apr 19, 2024 1:20 AM

SHANGHAI, April 19 (Reuters) - China is widely expected

to leave benchmark lending rates unchanged on Monday, a Reuters

survey showed, as encouraging first quarter economic data

reduces the urgency for further monetary stimulus to aid a

fragile recovery.

A weakening yuan also continues to restrict the headroom

available for Beijing to easy policy.

The loan prime rate (LPR) normally charged to banks' best

clients is calculated each month after 20 designated commercial

banks submit proposed rates to the People's Bank of China

(PBOC).

In a survey of 30 market watchers conducted this week, all

respondents expected both the one-year and the

five-year LPRs would stay unchanged.

Most new and outstanding loans in the world's second-largest

economy are based on the one-year LPR, which stands at 3.45%.

The five-year LPR, which serves as the mortgage reference

rate, is currently at 3.95% after a 25-basis-point reduction in

February to support the housing market.

The strong consensus for steady LPR fixings comes after

China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter,

offering some relief to officials as they try to shore up growth

in the face of protracted weakness in the property sector and

mounting local government debt.

"Currently, with the stronger-than-expected Q1 growth, we

think the authorities may be reluctant to roll out any

additional supportive macro policies," said Wang Tao, chief

China economist at UBS.

Wang said she no longer expects a reduction to the

medium-term policy rate but thinks a LPR cut was still likely.

The medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate serves as a

guide to LPRs and markets generally closely track of the MLF

rate as a precursor for any changes in lending benchmarks.

China's yuan has lost 2% to the U.S. dollar so

far this year, and remains biased to the downside, pressured by

its relative low yields versus other currencies and outflows of

foreign investment from an anaemic stock market.

"The intense concern with the bilateral USD/CNY exchange

rate may even be preventing the PBOC from cutting interest rates

further," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC

Capital Markets.

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