SHANGHAI, April 19 (Reuters) - China is widely expected
to leave benchmark lending rates unchanged on Monday, a Reuters
survey showed, as encouraging first quarter economic data
reduces the urgency for further monetary stimulus to aid a
fragile recovery.
A weakening yuan also continues to restrict the headroom
available for Beijing to easy policy.
The loan prime rate (LPR) normally charged to banks' best
clients is calculated each month after 20 designated commercial
banks submit proposed rates to the People's Bank of China
(PBOC).
In a survey of 30 market watchers conducted this week, all
respondents expected both the one-year and the
five-year LPRs would stay unchanged.
Most new and outstanding loans in the world's second-largest
economy are based on the one-year LPR, which stands at 3.45%.
The five-year LPR, which serves as the mortgage reference
rate, is currently at 3.95% after a 25-basis-point reduction in
February to support the housing market.
The strong consensus for steady LPR fixings comes after
China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter,
offering some relief to officials as they try to shore up growth
in the face of protracted weakness in the property sector and
mounting local government debt.
"Currently, with the stronger-than-expected Q1 growth, we
think the authorities may be reluctant to roll out any
additional supportive macro policies," said Wang Tao, chief
China economist at UBS.
Wang said she no longer expects a reduction to the
medium-term policy rate but thinks a LPR cut was still likely.
The medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate serves as a
guide to LPRs and markets generally closely track of the MLF
rate as a precursor for any changes in lending benchmarks.
China's yuan has lost 2% to the U.S. dollar so
far this year, and remains biased to the downside, pressured by
its relative low yields versus other currencies and outflows of
foreign investment from an anaemic stock market.
"The intense concern with the bilateral USD/CNY exchange
rate may even be preventing the PBOC from cutting interest rates
further," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC
Capital Markets.