BEIJING, May 31 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing
activity unexpectedly fell in May, keeping alive calls for fresh
stimulus as a protracted property crisis in the world's
second-largest economy continues to weigh on business, consumer
and investor confidence.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI)
dropped to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, the National Bureau
of Statistics (NBS) said on Friday, below the 50-mark separating
growth from contraction and missing analysts' forecast of 50.4.
The disappointing number adds to a series of recent
indicators showing the $18.6 trillion economy is struggling to
get back on its feet, eroding earlier optimism seen after
better-than-expected output and trade data.
"I think the data particularly reflects soft domestic
demand, the housing sector continued to worsen and retail sales
were not strong," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the
Economist Intelligence Unit.
"The May reading may indicate a temporary blip. We'll
probably see an improvement in June as new government policies
start to impact, such as the property rescue plan and the
issuance of special sovereign bonds," he added.
The PMI's sub-indices for new orders and new export orders
both tipped back into contraction after two months of growth,
while employment continued to shrink.
The services sub-index under the NBS non-manufacturing
survey improved to 50.5 in May from 50.3 in April. But growth as
represented by the broader services index, which also includes
construction, slowed in May to 51.1 from 51.2 a month prior.
Problems in the property sector have had a negative impact
across broad areas of China's economy and slowed Beijing's
efforts to shift its growth model more towards domestic
consumption from debt-fuelled investment.
Retail sales last month grew at their slowest since December
2022 while new home prices fell at their fastest rate in nine
years, suggesting it is too early to say if the battered economy
has finally turned a corner.
The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday revised up its
China growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 5% for 2024
and 4.5% in 2025, but warned the property sector remained a key
growth risk.
China this month unveiled "historic" steps to stabilise the
property market, but analysts say the measures fall short of
what is required for a sustainable recovery.
The IMF said it saw "scope for a more comprehensive policy
package to address property sector issues."
Nie Wen, an economist at Shanghai Hwabao Trust, said the
decline reinforced the case for more support.
"There is still a need to strengthen stimulus on the demand
side, while at the same time sorting the credit channels as soon
as possible to avoid financial institutions' balance sheets
shrinking, which would have a negative effect on the economy,"
Nie said.