* Producer price index highest since July 2022 on
commodity price gains
* Consumer prices rise 1.2% y/y as gasoline and gold
jewellery prices surge
* Inflation unlikely to lead to policy moves, analysts
say
(Adds comments from analysts, details from data, market
reaction)
By Yukun Zhang and Liz Lee
BEIJING, May 11 (Reuters) - China's producer prices blew
past expectations to rise to a 45-month high in April, while
consumer inflation also accelerated as global energy costs
remained elevated, piling more pressure on manufacturers already
grappling with weak demand at home.
Analysts said cost-push factors, however, were unlikely to
trigger policy moves as they lessen the urgency for looser
monetary policy to support growth. Price levels will also likely
remain below the official target range for inflation, they said.
The producer price index (PPI) increased 2.8% from a year
earlier, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on
Monday, exceeding a 1.6% rise forecast in a Reuters poll. The
gauge had reversed a 41-month declining streak in March when
prices rose 0.5%.
"The fallout from the Iran war pushed up inflation again in
April, but price pressures remain narrow in scope and aren't
likely to build into a wider reflationary impulse," Capital
Economics analysts said.
On a month-on-month basis, PPI rose 1.7% in April after
climbing 1% in March.
The NBS attributed higher factory-gate inflation to rising
prices in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil and gas and
tech equipment, according to statistician Huo Lihui in a
statement.
Chinese policymakers have repeatedly vowed to boost weak
domestic consumption, curb excessive market competition and
drive a rebound in prices as deflationary pressures weigh on
businesses' profit margins.
Inflation driven by external price shocks, however, does not
indicate an improvement in the supply-demand balance and could
spell new headaches for the export-led economy.
Prices still face upward pressure as oil prices are unlikely
to return to levels before the war, but inflation is expected to
only have a limited impact on policy, said Xu Tianchen, senior
economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Rising global energy costs are also pushing the cost of
living higher. China's state planner has raised retail prices of
gasoline and diesel since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran began
in late February, although it has capped the increases to blunt
the impact on consumers. Major Chinese airlines have ramped up
fuel surcharges for domestic flights.
The consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% year-on-year in
April versus a 1% increase in March, driven mainly by price
swings in gasoline and gold jewellery, according to the NBS.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.9% rise.
Higher living costs could further subdue household
consumption, which has remained sluggish during a slowdown in
overall economic growth and a years-long property market slump.
Food prices dropped 1.6%, with pork prices down 15.2%.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices,
grew 1.2% from a year earlier compared with a 1.1% increase in
March.
On a monthly basis, CPI ticked up 0.3% versus an expected
0.1% dip and compared with a 0.7% drop in March.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite index was up 0.9%
by midday, while the blue-chip CSI300 index gained
1.4%.
WILL INFLATION LAST?
China's year-on-year PPI reading turned negative in October
2022, marking the start of a years-long deflationary streak as
growth momentum faltered and demand at home, worsened by a
property downturn, could not absorb manufacturers' capacity.
A government campaign to curb excessive capacity and price
competition in key industrial sectors, such as in solar panel
and auto manufacturing, had helped moderate producer price
deflation. But the headline reading only turned positive in
March when supply chain shocks boosted energy prices.
"It is possible that cost-push pressures work their way
through to wider inflation over the coming months. But with
overcapacity in most sectors unresolved and domestic demand
growth still sluggish, the ingredients for a sustained
reflationary impulse still appear to be missing," Capital
Economics analysts wrote.
Beijing's sizeable energy reserves and diversified supply
mix have cushioned its economy from the impact of energy supply
disruptions in the Middle East, and its exports remained
resilient this year due to robust demand for AI-related goods
and as firms stockpiled components on fears over rising material
costs.
China's export engine is vulnerable to swings in demand from
global trade partners, many of whom are scrambling to contain
the fallout from the Middle East conflict.