BEIJING, June 30 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing
activity fell for a second month in June while services activity
slipped to a five-month low, an official survey showed on
Sunday, keeping alive calls for further stimulus as the economy
struggles to get back on its feet.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) purchasing managers'
index (PMI), at 49.5 in June, was unchanged from May, below the
50-mark separating growth from contraction and in line with a
median forecast of 49.5 in a Reuters poll.
"Actual industrial activity should be stronger than the data
suggests as our observation is that the official PMI fails to
fully capture the current export momentum, which has been the
major economic driver this year," said Xu Tianchen, senior
economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Still, Xu added that external and domestic demand remains
relatively inadequate to absorb China's manufacturing capacity
and this will prevent a recovery in producer prices.
While a sub-index of production was above 50 in June, other
indexes of new orders, raw material stocks, employment, supplier
delivery times and new export orders were all in contractionary
territory, the NBS survey showed.
China's exports exceeded forecasts in May, but analysts
said the jury is still out on whether export sales are
sustainable given growing trade tension between Beijing and
Western economies. Meanwhile, a protracted property crisis
continues to drag on domestic demand.
With consumers wary and the Labour Day holiday boost
fleeting, the non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and
construction, fell to 50.5 from 51.1 in May, the lowest since
December.
The services PMI sank to 50.2, a five-month low, and
construction PMI slipped to 52.3, the weakest reading since July
last year.
Analysts expect China to roll out more policy support
measures in the short term, while a government pledge to boost
fiscal stimulus is seen helping kick domestic consumption into a
higher gear.
"The weak PMI figures naturally call for more supportive
policies from the Chinese government. However, the room for
monetary policy easing is limited for the time being, as the
Chinese currency is under pressure," said Hao Zhou, chief
economist at Guotai Junan International.
"That said, fiscal policy is likely to take the driving
seat, suggesting that the central government will need to issue
more debt over the foreseeable future to boost the overall
domestic demand."
But high local-government debt and deflationary pressure
cast a long shadow over recovery prospects, despite a slew of
measures officials have rolled out since last October, tempering
investors' and factory owners' expectations.
China's central bank last month announced a relending
programme for affordable housing to accelerate sales of unsold
housing stock so supply better matches demand.
Officials are under pressure to fire up new growth engines
to reduce the economy's reliance on property.
Premier Li Qiang told a World Economic Forum meeting on
Tuesday that growth of new industries was supporting healthy
economic development.
"Since the beginning of this year, China's economy has
maintained an upward trend... and is expected to continue to
improve steadily over the second quarter," Li said.
Economists and investors are awaiting for the Third Plenum
to be held on July 15-18 with hundreds of China's top Communist
Party officials gathering in Beijing for the five-yearly
meeting.