(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Jamie McGeever

ORLANDO, Florida, June 4 (Reuters) - Investors,

consumers and policymakers may justifiably fear the specter of

tariff-fueled inflation later this year and beyond, but it's

powerful global disinflationary forces that are weighing most

heavily right now.

The OECD said on Tuesday it expects collective annual

headline inflation in G20 economies to moderate to 3.6% this

year from 6.2% last year, cooling further in 2026 to 3.2%.

But the United States is an "important exception," the OECD

argues, and it sees inflation there rising to just under 4%

later this year and remaining above target in 2026.

While annual PCE consumer inflation in the U.S. cooled to

2.1% in April, the slowest rate in four years and virtually at

the Fed's 2% target, consumer inflation expectations are the

loftiest in decades. The Fed has paused its easing cycle as a

result, and U.S. bond yields are higher than most of their G10

peers.

Economists at Goldman Sachs share the OECD's view that U.S.

inflation will pick up to near 4% this year, with tariffs

accounting for around half of that. Many others also agree that

the U.S. appears to be the exception, not the rule.

The world's next two largest economies, China and the euro

zone, find themselves trying to stave off disinflation.

Deepening trade and financial ties between the two may only

intensify these forces, keeping a lid on price increases.

SPECTER OF DEFLATION

Annual inflation in the euro zone cooled to 1.9% in May,

below the European Central Bank's 2% target, essentially setting

the seal on another quarter-point rate cut later this week. More

easing appears to be in the cards.

As economists at Nomura point out, inflation swaps are

priced for inflation undershooting the ECB's target for at least

the next two years. This, combined with weakening growth due to

U.S. tariffs and disinflationary pressure from China, could

force the ECB to cut rates another 50 basis points to 1.5% by

September.

China's war on deflation is, of course, well-known to

investors, but it has appeared to slip off their collective

radar given how protracted it has become.

The last time annual inflation in China eclipsed 1% was more

than two years ago, and it has remained near zero, on average,

ever since. China's 10-year bond yield remains anchored near

January's record low below 1.60%, reflecting investors'

skepticism that price pressures will accelerate any time soon.

They have reason to be doubtful. Deflation and record-low

bond yields continue to stalk the economy despite Beijing's

fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts since September. And

punitive tariffs on exports to the U.S., one of its largest

export markets, are generating massive uncertainty about the

country's economic outlook moving forward.

REER-VIEW MIRROR

This is where the exchange rate becomes important. On the

face of it, Beijing appears to have resisted mounting pressure

on the yuan thus far, with the onshore and offshore yuan last

week trading near their strongest levels against the dollar

since November.

But when considering the yuan's broad real effective

exchange rate (REER), an inflation-adjusted measure of its value

against a basket of currencies, the Chinese currency is the

weakest since 2012. Robin Brooks at The Brookings Institution

reckons it may be undervalued by more than 10%.

With China's goods so cheap in the global marketplace, China

is essentially exporting deflation. And the yuan's relative

weakness could put pressure on other Asian countries to weaken

their currencies to keep them competitive, even as the Trump

administration potentially encourages these governments to do

the exact opposite.

Countries in Asia and around the world, especially in the

euro zone, may also be nervous that China could dump goods

previously bound for the U.S. on their markets.

If anyone wants confirmation that the "tariffs equal

inflation" view is too simplistic, they got it this week from

Switzerland, where deflation is back and potential negative

interest rates may not be far behind.

True, Trump's threatened tariffs could throw everything up

in the air. But the Swiss example is a warning to markets and

policymakers that global disinflationary forces may be

spreading.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters)