12:25 PM EDT, 03/19/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The geopolitical risk index indicates that this oil price shock as a result of the Iran war is the fifth-largest shock in the past 40 years, said Deutsche Bank.

9/11-Afghanistan was easily the biggest, but the current episode is not far behind the others, such as, the Gulf war, Iraq war, Ukraine invasion, noted the bank.

Deutsche Bank pointed out that while oil is vitally important to the world, at the margin, it's becoming less so. The oil intensity of the global economy has been in a persistent downtrend for decades, oil consumption grows sub-2% per year, less than half the rate of growth in real gross domestic product.

For currencies, the US dollar (USD) continues to hold a moderate premium to rate spreads, about 4%, added the bank. That seems fair given the lack of other options and the United States' net-energy exposure.

Japan's yen (JPY) actually doesn't look all that cheap on a model of rates, oil and equities, added Deutsche Bank. The SNB worries about the Swiss franc's (CHF) strength. Gold's luster has dimmed. Not only has it fallen during March, but it also looks to have diverged excessively from oil in the past day.

Some of the mid-size currencies have garnered attention; Australia's dollar (AUD) and Canadian dollar (CAD or loonies) keep performing given their terms-of-trade boost, according to the bank. But Deutsche Bank prefers the former, given the sharply divergent domestic pictures.