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Dollar steady, bitcoin jumps as markets weigh up a possible Trump victory
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Dollar steady, bitcoin jumps as markets weigh up a possible Trump victory
Jul 15, 2024 4:59 AM

(Updates at 1109 GMT)

By Rae Wee and Samuel Indyk

LONDON, July 15 (Reuters) - The dollar held steady on

Monday and cryptocurrencies jumped as investors weighed up what

the attempted assassination of former U.S. President Donald

Trump might mean for his chances in the 2024 elections and the

possible impact on markets.

In the aftermath of the shooting, investors narrowed the

odds of a Trump victory. Such an expectation has in the past

strengthened the dollar as traders have calculated its would

lead to looser fiscal policy and extra trade tariffs.

But gains for the currency in Asia-Pacific trading hours

were short-lived, with the market also focused on the monetary

policy outlook.

"There's still a lot of ground to be covered between now

and November and a lot of uncertainty about what the Federal

Reserve will do in the coming months," Jane Foley, senior FX

strategist at Rabobank, said.

Markets are now fully pricing a quarter-point rate cut

from the Fed in September after data last week showed

consumer prices

fell on a monthly basis for the first in four years in

June.

"On one hand you have increased likelihood of the Fed

cutting in September and on the other hand an increased chance

of a Trump presidency which suggests the interest rate cycle

could be quite limited," Rabobank's Foley added.

"You have these two opposing factors for the dollar in the

near term."

The dollar index, which measure the currency against

six major peers, was last up less than 0.1% on the day at

104.10.

The euro was little changed at $1.0910 after

earlier hitting its highest level since March at $1.0921, while

sterling dipped 0.1% to $1.2979.

Long-dated U.S. bond yields ticked higher on expectations

that a Trump win would see policies that would drive up

government debt and stoke inflation.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last up

roughly 3.5 basis points at 4.2197%.

Elsewhere, crypto prices surged, with bitcoin last up

roughly 4% at $62,601. Ether jumped nearly 5% to $3,338.

Trump has presented himself as a champion for

cryptocurrency, although he has not offered specifics on his

proposed crypto policy.

YEN WATCH

Elsewhere, the yen reversed some of its gains

from late last week and last stood at 157.96 per dollar, though

remained not too far from a roughly one-month high of 157.30 hit

on Friday.

Tokyo was thought to have intervened in the market to prop

up the battered Japanese currency last week in the wake of the

cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation report, with Bank of Japan

data suggesting that authorities may have spent up to 3.57

trillion yen ($22.4 billion) to do so on Thursday.

"We continue to think that a more substantial Yen

appreciation will require a more significant negative US growth

shock or a significantly more hawkish BoJ (Bank of Japan),"

Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.

China also grabbed investors' attention on Monday, as data

showed the world's second-largest economy grew much slower than

expected in the second quarter, weighed down by a protracted

property downturn and as job insecurity squeezed domestic

demand.

Separate figures released earlier in the day showed China's

new home prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years in June,

with the battered sector struggling to find a bottom despite

government support measures to control oversupply and bolster

confidence.

The Chinese yuan last inched 0.2% lower to 7.2616 per dollar

in the onshore market.

"The second-quarter momentum weakening kind of implies that

we'll need more support to get the economy to the 5% target for

the whole year," Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC

Capital Markets, said.

China's once-in-five-year gathering of top officials, which

usually ushers in policy changes, kicked off on Monday. The

four-day plenum will be watched for measures to support the

patchy recovery in the world's second-largest economy.

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