(Updates at 1109 GMT)
By Rae Wee and Samuel Indyk
LONDON, July 15 (Reuters) - The dollar held steady on
Monday and cryptocurrencies jumped as investors weighed up what
the attempted assassination of former U.S. President Donald
Trump might mean for his chances in the 2024 elections and the
possible impact on markets.
In the aftermath of the shooting, investors narrowed the
odds of a Trump victory. Such an expectation has in the past
strengthened the dollar as traders have calculated its would
lead to looser fiscal policy and extra trade tariffs.
But gains for the currency in Asia-Pacific trading hours
were short-lived, with the market also focused on the monetary
policy outlook.
"There's still a lot of ground to be covered between now
and November and a lot of uncertainty about what the Federal
Reserve will do in the coming months," Jane Foley, senior FX
strategist at Rabobank, said.
Markets are now fully pricing a quarter-point rate cut
from the Fed in September after data last week showed
consumer prices
fell on a monthly basis for the first in four years in
June.
"On one hand you have increased likelihood of the Fed
cutting in September and on the other hand an increased chance
of a Trump presidency which suggests the interest rate cycle
could be quite limited," Rabobank's Foley added.
"You have these two opposing factors for the dollar in the
near term."
The dollar index, which measure the currency against
six major peers, was last up less than 0.1% on the day at
104.10.
The euro was little changed at $1.0910 after
earlier hitting its highest level since March at $1.0921, while
sterling dipped 0.1% to $1.2979.
Long-dated U.S. bond yields ticked higher on expectations
that a Trump win would see policies that would drive up
government debt and stoke inflation.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last up
roughly 3.5 basis points at 4.2197%.
Elsewhere, crypto prices surged, with bitcoin last up
roughly 4% at $62,601. Ether jumped nearly 5% to $3,338.
Trump has presented himself as a champion for
cryptocurrency, although he has not offered specifics on his
proposed crypto policy.
YEN WATCH
Elsewhere, the yen reversed some of its gains
from late last week and last stood at 157.96 per dollar, though
remained not too far from a roughly one-month high of 157.30 hit
on Friday.
Tokyo was thought to have intervened in the market to prop
up the battered Japanese currency last week in the wake of the
cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation report, with Bank of Japan
data suggesting that authorities may have spent up to 3.57
trillion yen ($22.4 billion) to do so on Thursday.
"We continue to think that a more substantial Yen
appreciation will require a more significant negative US growth
shock or a significantly more hawkish BoJ (Bank of Japan),"
Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
China also grabbed investors' attention on Monday, as data
showed the world's second-largest economy grew much slower than
expected in the second quarter, weighed down by a protracted
property downturn and as job insecurity squeezed domestic
demand.
Separate figures released earlier in the day showed China's
new home prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years in June,
with the battered sector struggling to find a bottom despite
government support measures to control oversupply and bolster
confidence.
The Chinese yuan last inched 0.2% lower to 7.2616 per dollar
in the onshore market.
"The second-quarter momentum weakening kind of implies that
we'll need more support to get the economy to the 5% target for
the whole year," Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC
Capital Markets, said.
China's once-in-five-year gathering of top officials, which
usually ushers in policy changes, kicked off on Monday. The
four-day plenum will be watched for measures to support the
patchy recovery in the world's second-largest economy.