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EMERGING MARKETS-Asian stocks, FX hold ground, but held back by stubborn Fed
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EMERGING MARKETS-Asian stocks, FX hold ground, but held back by stubborn Fed
Jun 27, 2024 10:42 PM

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Thai baht worst performer in 1H

*

All Asian currencies set to end 1H in red

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Equities mixed over 1H; Taiwan set for around 29% gain

*

Traders await US PCE data due out later in day

By Roshan Thomas

June 28 (Reuters) - Most Asian currencies and stocks

held their ground on Friday ahead of key U.S. inflation data,

but were on track to end the first half of the year deep in the

red, pressured by the Federal Reserve's frustratingly slow shift

to lower rates.

The Thai baht, South Korean won,

Indonesian rupiah and the Philippine peso were

among the worst performing currencies among emerging Asian

markets, weakening between 5% and 7% in the first half.

"While a firm U.S. dollar and domestic (Thai) politics serve

as near-term headwinds for the currency, we retain our sanguine

outlook for the Thai baht in the later part of this year,"

analysts at MUFG said in a client note.

A slew of court cases against Thai politicians, including

incumbent prime minister Srettha Thavisin, has put domestic

politics and financial markets on edge, creating uncertainty in

the Southeast Asia's second-largest economy.

Other currencies such as the Singapore dollar and the

Malaysian ringgit also declined by 2.9% and 2.7%,

respectively, in the first half of 2024.

In contrast, the Indian rupee was the top performer

in the region, receding only marginally so far this year, helped

by improving economic fundamentals and foreign inflows.

"Growth has been healthy in India, is likely to continue to

flourish and inflation is also within target, so the RBI

(Reserve Bank of India) is in no hurry to slash rates to be more

growth supportive," analysts at Maybank wrote.

"This view is supported by India's bond inclusion into JP

Morgan EM Index starting today, which will attract billions of

dollars in foreign inflows," they said, adding that they expect

a tight range of 83.00 to 84.00 rupee per dollar to hold.

On Friday, the Taiwan dollar, Malaysian ringgit, and

Singapore dollar were largely unchanged. The South Korean won

gained 0.3%, while the Thai baht slipped marginally.

Traders are closely eyeing the upcoming U.S. personal

consumption expenditures (PCE) reading later today as they seek

clues on the direction of Fed policy.

In Asia, traders are bracing for a deluge of inflation data

next week from Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines and

Thailand to get read of the likely direction of regional

monetary policy.

Among equities, shares in Jakarta rose 1.2%, while

those in Manila, Seoul, and Taipei were

up between 0.3% and 0.8%.

Equities were mixed over the first-half of 2024. Shares in

South Korea, Malaysia, and India were set to end the half-year

between 5% and 11% in green, while Taiwan shares were poised for

a massive near 29% gain boosted by chip stocks.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** Indonesian 10-year benchmark yields slip to 7.080%

** Indian bond yields seen easing on global index inclusion

** Dollar breaks 161 yen in countdown to U.S. inflation

release

** Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump clash at

their first debate

Asia stock indexes and

currencies at 0337 GMT

COUNTRY FX RIC FX FX INDE STOCKS STOCK

DAILY YTD % X DAILY S YTD

% % %

Japan -0.14 -12.3 China EC>

India +0.07 -0.23 Indones +0.06 -6.04 Malaysi +0.02 -2.69 Philipp +0.14 -5.54 S.Korea 11>

Singapo +0.03 -2.86 Taiwan +0.15 -5.37 Thailan -0.14 -7.29

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