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EMERGING MARKETS-EM assets rebound as policy outlook, local elections take centre stage
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EMERGING MARKETS-EM assets rebound as policy outlook, local elections take centre stage
Jun 3, 2024 2:43 AM

*

Sheinbaum wins landslide to become first woman Mexican

president

*

India shares at record high, exit polls predict Modi

landslide

*

Moody's: SA coalition govt could complicate policy

execution

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MSCIEF set for best day since mid Nov

By Ankika Biswas

June 3 (Reuters) - Emerging market stocks and currencies

bounced back on Monday, with local elections in Mexico, India

and South Africa and expected monetary policy easing from major

central banks at the top of investors' radar.

The MSCI index for EM stocks climbed 2.1%, set for

its biggest one-day jump since mid November, after having lost

nearly 4% in four straight sessions. The currencies gauge

edged 0.1% higher after three days of losses.

Traders largely expect interest rate cuts from the European

Central Bank and the Bank of Canada this week, while U.S. rate

reductions are expected later this year.

On the election front, Claudia Sheinbaum won a landslide

victory to become Mexico's first female president. The Mexican

peso weakened over 1% against the dollar as the ruling

coalition looked poised for a super-majority that markets fear

could bring constitutional reforms.

"(A super majority) would enable Sheinbaum and Morena

(party) to push through constitutional amendments. Policy

continuity will largely prevail under a Sheinbaum government,

particularly when it comes welfare policy," Jason Tuvey, deputy

chief EM economist at Capital Economics wrote.

"The next key thing to watch will be whether Sheinbaum

offers any hints of cabinet appointments."

In India, exit polls pointed to a third term and sizable

mandate for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with investors eying

public spending to maintain economic momentum, sending the

country's stocks to record highs, the rupee up and bond

yields lower.

Final results from South Africa's National Assembly

elections confirmed that the ANC suffered its worst election

showing since it came to power 30 years ago.

The South African rand strengthened 0.7% against the

dollar, after slipping on Friday on fears the ANC could form a

coalition with radical parties. The wider equity index

jumped 1.3% after recent declines.

Moody's ratings agency said a coalition government could

complicate the execution of fiscal, economic and social policies

that would help address the South Africa's structural credit

weaknesses.

On the data front, Central European manufacturing mostly

contracted in May as Polish and Czech producers faced declining

output and orders, while Hungarian factory activity stayed

muted. S&P Global's Polish PMI fell to 45.0 in May from 45.9 in

April, staying below the 50 mark for the 25th month in a row.

The Hungarian forint fell to a one-month low

against the euro, as central Europe's markets awaited fresh data

to gauge prospects of interest rate cuts ahead.

However, Budapest's blue-chip stocks index and Warsaw

were up 2.2% and 1%, respectively.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** China factory activity growth hits 2-year high- Caixin

PMI; Moody's raises China's growth forecast

** Turkey inflation hits 75% in expected peak before relief

** Iran's ex-President Ahmadinejad to run in presidential

election- state TV

** Pakistan inflation slows to 11.8% in May, lowest in 30

months

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