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EMERGING MARKETS-EM stocks, FX fall on renewed Iran war risks, but set for monthly gains
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EMERGING MARKETS-EM stocks, FX fall on renewed Iran war risks, but set for monthly gains
Apr 30, 2026 3:08 AM

* MSCI EM stocks set for biggest monthly jump since 2022

* Renewed US-Iran tensions push Brent oil to four-year

high

* Hungary's forint set for sharpest monthly rise in 14

years

By Purvi Agarwal

April 30 (Reuters) - Most emerging market stocks and

currencies dipped on Thursday on concerns that the Iran war

could escalate, sending oil prices soaring over 7%, while

investors assessed the impact of a hawkish stance by the U.S.

Federal Reserve.

Trump is slated to receive a briefing on plans for a series

of fresh military strikes on Iran in hopes it will return to

negotiations, according to an Axios report late on Wednesday,

sending Brent crude prices to a fresh four-year high.

Since its outset, the Iran war has battered global markets

and raised concerns about inflation, as shipping disruptions in

the crucial region have kept oil prices elevated.

MSCI's indexes tracking global EM currencies

and stocks dipped 0.2% and 1.2% respectively, but were

set for robust monthly gains.

The stocks gauge is set for its biggest monthly jump since

November 2022, as risk appetite improved this month after the

U.S. and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire, which was later

extended even as negotiations stalled.

"With no sign of any peace talks and fears mounting about an

escalation, oil prices have continued their gains of recent

days... investors are pricing in a more protracted conflict,"

said analysts at Deutsche Bank.

Most stock indexes were lower on the day, including Asian

ones that have seen robust gains on the back of euphoria around

AI. Bourses in South Korea and Taiwan marked

their best month in decades.

Stocks in Romania were flat and Hungarian ones

gained 1%, while Polish equities slipped 0.6%. Turkish

equities were up 0.4%.

However, South African stocks gained 0.7%, as gold

prices rose over 1%. The bullion is one of the country's top

exports.

FED BOARD SPLIT, RUSSIAN ECONOMY CONTRACTS

On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve held rates steady at

Jerome Powell's last meeting as Fed Chair, but it was the most

divided board since 1992, with four dissents. Markets pulled

back bets on any rate reductions this year, expecting them to be

on hold through 2026.

"Three Fed members opposed the post-meeting language

suggesting the central bank would eventually resume cutting

interest rates, arguing it was too early to signal easing while

the inflation outlook remains uncertain," said Ipek

Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

"This divergence could complicate the Fed's communication

under the new Chair, particularly as policy expectations

evolve."

Turkey's lira fell 0.3%, while South Africa's

rand was flat. Emerging European currencies were mixed

against the euro, but Romania's leu and Hungary's

forint dipped 0.7% and 0.8% respectively.

The latter was set for its sharpest monthly rise since June

2012 as investors piled into the currency after centre-right

party Tisza's sweeping victory in elections this month.

In Russia, the economy contracted by 0.3% in the first

quarter, marking its first quarterly contraction since early

2023, preliminary data showed on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, Sri Lankan bonds broadly fell by over 1 cent on

the dollar each, hurt by the sharp spike in oil prices.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** Hungary's inflation rate could rise above 5% in second

half, central bank governor tells HVG.hu

** Asia's bond markets shake off war angst with record local

issuance

** Energy prices push Polish inflation above forecasts in

April

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see

For TURKISH market report, see

For RUSSIAN market report, see

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