* MSCI EM stocks set for biggest monthly jump since 2022
* Renewed US-Iran tensions push Brent oil to four-year
high
* Hungary's forint set for sharpest monthly rise in 14
years
By Purvi Agarwal
April 30 (Reuters) - Most emerging market stocks and
currencies dipped on Thursday on concerns that the Iran war
could escalate, sending oil prices soaring over 7%, while
investors assessed the impact of a hawkish stance by the U.S.
Federal Reserve.
Trump is slated to receive a briefing on plans for a series
of fresh military strikes on Iran in hopes it will return to
negotiations, according to an Axios report late on Wednesday,
sending Brent crude prices to a fresh four-year high.
Since its outset, the Iran war has battered global markets
and raised concerns about inflation, as shipping disruptions in
the crucial region have kept oil prices elevated.
MSCI's indexes tracking global EM currencies
and stocks dipped 0.2% and 1.2% respectively, but were
set for robust monthly gains.
The stocks gauge is set for its biggest monthly jump since
November 2022, as risk appetite improved this month after the
U.S. and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire, which was later
extended even as negotiations stalled.
"With no sign of any peace talks and fears mounting about an
escalation, oil prices have continued their gains of recent
days... investors are pricing in a more protracted conflict,"
said analysts at Deutsche Bank.
Most stock indexes were lower on the day, including Asian
ones that have seen robust gains on the back of euphoria around
AI. Bourses in South Korea and Taiwan marked
their best month in decades.
Stocks in Romania were flat and Hungarian ones
gained 1%, while Polish equities slipped 0.6%. Turkish
equities were up 0.4%.
However, South African stocks gained 0.7%, as gold
prices rose over 1%. The bullion is one of the country's top
exports.
FED BOARD SPLIT, RUSSIAN ECONOMY CONTRACTS
On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve held rates steady at
Jerome Powell's last meeting as Fed Chair, but it was the most
divided board since 1992, with four dissents. Markets pulled
back bets on any rate reductions this year, expecting them to be
on hold through 2026.
"Three Fed members opposed the post-meeting language
suggesting the central bank would eventually resume cutting
interest rates, arguing it was too early to signal easing while
the inflation outlook remains uncertain," said Ipek
Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
"This divergence could complicate the Fed's communication
under the new Chair, particularly as policy expectations
evolve."
Turkey's lira fell 0.3%, while South Africa's
rand was flat. Emerging European currencies were mixed
against the euro, but Romania's leu and Hungary's
forint dipped 0.7% and 0.8% respectively.
The latter was set for its sharpest monthly rise since June
2012 as investors piled into the currency after centre-right
party Tisza's sweeping victory in elections this month.
In Russia, the economy contracted by 0.3% in the first
quarter, marking its first quarterly contraction since early
2023, preliminary data showed on Wednesday.
Elsewhere, Sri Lankan bonds broadly fell by over 1 cent on
the dollar each, hurt by the sharp spike in oil prices.
HIGHLIGHTS:
** Hungary's inflation rate could rise above 5% in second
half, central bank governor tells HVG.hu
** Asia's bond markets shake off war angst with record local
issuance
** Energy prices push Polish inflation above forecasts in
April
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For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see
For TURKISH market report, see
For RUSSIAN market report, see