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EM stocks down 0.57%, FX down 0.2%; set for weekly fall
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Czech CPI at 2.3% y/y in September
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Polish central bank governor still sees some space for
rate cuts
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Romania Q2 final GDP +0.3% y/y, in line with preliminary
estimate
By Nikhil Sharma
Oct 10 (Reuters) - Emerging Market assets fell on
Friday, setting up a negative end to a week dominated by
regional interest rate decisions and crucial data, alongside a
strengthening U.S. dollar due to shifting global political
dynamics.
The MSCI index of EM currencies slipped
0.2%, set for its fourth consecutive day of losses. For the
week, it was down 0.3%, dragged down by the dollar's climb this
week.
The greenback was on pace for its best weekly performance in
more than a year, helped by a falling yen, which reflected
expectations of increased fiscal spending in Japan after
hardline conservative Sanae Takaichi was elected prime minister.
Political uncertainty in France and a prolonged U.S.
government shutdown have also boosted the dollar's safe-haven
appeal, pressuring other currencies.
Analysts at ING noted the re-establishment of the dollar's
safe-haven value, but flagged the risk of corrections, adding
that "another rally would start to bring the greenback
dangerously far from what short-term rate differentials
justify."
A broader gauge for EM equities fell 0.6% on
Friday, taking its weekly losses to 0.4%, faltering after robust
gains in the previous week.
The Hungarian forint remained among the
worst-performing currencies for the week, down 0.54%
week-to-date, due to ongoing pressure from the government on the
central bank to lower borrowing costs from the European Union's
joint-highest 6.5% level.
However, the central bank has doubled down on current rate
levels, citing the need for full certainty on reaching its 3%
inflation target before adjusting interest rates.
The currency was flat on Friday. The local equity index
added 0.2% and was up 1% for the week.
In the Czech Republic, the currency crown rose
0.18% and Prague stocks jumped 0.35% after data showed
consumer prices remained unchanged at 2.3% on a yearly basis in
September, hovering slightly closer to the central bank's target
range.
Moves in local markets were largely dominated by an election
win for ANO leader Andrej Babis, whose populist policies,
including lavish spending for wage hikes and tax cuts, could
potentially trigger a wider budget deficit than the outgoing
government.
The currency fell 0.24% week-to-date, its worst week since
late May. The equities were little changed this week.
Polish stocks fell 0.5% on Friday and was flat for
the week despite a surprise quarter-point rate cut by the
central bank this week amid easing inflationary pressures.
While the central bank remains uncertain about its move in
November, it hasn't ruled out further policy easing going
forward. Polish currency zloty traded in tight ranges
throughout the week and dipped 0.19% WTD.
Romania's main stock index edged up 0.2% and has
gained 0.6% this week so far. The currency leu
remained quiet throughout the week.
Fresh data showed the economy grew 0.3% on the year in the
second quarter, in line with estimates, while foreign trade
deficit widened by 4.9% on the year to 21.946 billion euros in
January-August.
Persistent inflation continues to cloud the economy,
prompting the central bank to leave rates unchanged at 6.5% on
Wednesday. Price pressures were exacerbated by the expiration of
a government-imposed electricity price cap and by tax increases
introduced to narrow the European Union's widest budget deficit.
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