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EMERGING MARKETS-Emerging markets fall as Iran war drags on, Turkey eyes rate hold
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EMERGING MARKETS-Emerging markets fall as Iran war drags on, Turkey eyes rate hold
Mar 12, 2026 2:54 AM

* EM stocks down 1.1%, FX down 0.33%

* Energy price surge a risk to Hungary's rating - S&P

* Turkey's c.bank to pause rate cuts as U.S.-Iran war

weighs

By Pranav Kashyap

March 12 (Reuters) - Emerging market assets slid broadly

on Thursday as the Iran war entered its 13th day with no sign of

easing, while neighbouring Turkey braced for an interest rate

decision.

Stocks in Istanbul rose 0.1% on the day. The

benchmark index, which got off to a strong start in January, has

since slipped into marginal declines. The change in momentum

comes as recent inflation data suggests the disinflation trend

is losing steam, prompting the central bank to revise its

year-end forecasts higher.

Later in the day, Turkey's central bank is expected to pause its

easing cycle once again and keep rates steady at 37%, as

policymakers weigh the market fallout from the U.S.-Iran war.

U.S. President Donald Trump said it was necessary to "finish

the job", while Iran told the world to brace for oil at $200 a

barrel after striking tankers in Iraqi waters and other ships

near the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Israeli stocks fell 1%, on course for their worst

week since October 2023, while the shekel weakened to a

nearly two-week low.

Stocks in Dubai fell 3.3%, dropping to their lowest

level since June after having lost nearly 20% over the past

eight sessions.

OIL SHOCK FEARS RESURFACE

Meanwhile, oil's surge past the $100-a-barrel mark reignited

a familiar fear that has haunted markets since the Middle East

conflict began: a fresh energy shock.

For economies that rely heavily on imported energy - much of

Europe among them - rising oil prices could quickly spill over

into broader inflation pressures.

Shaken investors sought refuge in the liquidity of the U.S.

dollar, steering clear of currencies from countries seen as

particularly vulnerable to oil shocks.

"The recent escalation around Iran has evolved from a

geopolitical risk into a potential macroeconomic shock," said

Michael Lok, Group CIO and co-CEO of asset management at UBP.

"If sustained, this will start testing the world economy's

resilience, as the main risk is slower growth alongside higher

inflation. Europe and much of Asia have demonstrated stronger

sensitivity."

A gauge tracking Central and Eastern European equities

fell 0.6%, while Hungary's forint and

benchmark stock index were little changed.

A senior analyst at S&P told Reuters on Wednesday that

Hungary's investment-grade credit ratings could come under

pressure if the surge in energy prices deepens and proves

prolonged.

In Johannesburg, stocks have already fallen 10%

since the start of March, putting the market on track for what

could be its first monthly decline after 14 straight months of

gains - a record winning streak.

Meanwhile, Pakistan's international dollar bonds were mixed

after the International Monetary Fund said it had made

"considerable progress" in talks on the latest reviews of the

country's bailout programme, though a staff-level agreement has

yet to be reached. Discussions are continuing as officials

assess the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict.

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