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EMERGING MARKETS-FX set for first weekly loss in six as Trump tariffs dominate
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EMERGING MARKETS-FX set for first weekly loss in six as Trump tariffs dominate
Jul 11, 2025 3:03 AM

*

Trump puts 35% tariff on Canada, EU tariff rate awaited

*

Romanian inflation rises above expectations in June

*

South Africa's rand set for biggest weekly loss since

March

*

MSCI EM FX flat, stocks off 0.1%

By Ragini Mathur and Purvi Agarwal

July 11 (Reuters) - Most emerging market currencies

inched lower, set for weekly declines, while stocks were mixed

on Friday as investors assessed U.S. President Donald Trump's

latest tariff plans and ongoing trade talks before an August 1

deadline.

On Thursday, Trump escalated his trade war with Canada,

announcing a 35% tariff on Canadian imports to take effect from

August 1.

Investors are also awaiting an expected European Union

tariff announcement.

So far markets have avoided major reactions as investors

anticipate deals are likely ahead of the revised August 1

deadline and that some of the proposed tariffs could face legal

hurdles.

The South African rand fell 0.7%, putting it on

course for its steepest weekly loss since late March, while its

stocks were down 0.5% after Trump threatened an

additional 10% on BRICS nations, of which South Africa is a

member.

Tariffs on many Asian emerging markets have forced them to

step up their trade talks with the United States. Brazil,

threatened with 50% tariffs, said it would retaliate.

Regarding Brazil, UBS said that the U.S. administration

could run into legal hurdles to justify its threatened tariffs

as it had a trade surplus with the country.

Analysts also took the view pragmatism would prevail.

"Emerging markets offer access to unique macro and policy

cycles, structural growth opportunities, and diversification

benefits - especially amid rising geopolitical fragmentation and

shifting supply chains," analysts at UBS' chief investment

office, led by Mark Haefele, wrote in a note.

Trade war jitters have driven investors into emerging

markets to try to diversify their holdings. The MSCI index

tracking global emerging market currencies has

gained about 7% this year.

The index was little changed on the day, but was set to snap

its five-week winning streak with marginal declines, as the

dollar edged higher, pressuring peers.

Most currencies in emerging Europe weakened against euro.

Romania's leu was 0.2% lower after data showed

consumer price inflation in the country rose 5.66% on the year

in June, exceeding expectations.

The Polish zloty and the Hungarian Forint

were down 0.2% and 0.4% respectively.

MSCI's global EM equities gauge was 0.1% lower on

Friday, poised for marginal weekly losses.

Regional stocks were broadly flat, with Romania's up

marginally, while indexes in Poland and Hungary

both slipped 0.2%.

Turkey's lira was flat, while its stocks

gained 0.6% to trade at their highest level since March

17.

Meanwhile, Moody's upgraded Oman's rating to 'Baa3' on

stronger debt metrics and Fitch Ratings upgraded Bulgaria's on

euro adoption approval.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** Asian stocks attract foreign inflows for second month,

but tariff outlook clouds

** Brazil has few exit routes from Trump tariff but feels

less pain

** Chinese banks stumble on Beijing's consumer lending push

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see

For TURKISH market report, see

For RUSSIAN market report, see

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