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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX and stocks dwindle, Mexican peso hits two-year low
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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX and stocks dwindle, Mexican peso hits two-year low
Nov 3, 2024 3:10 PM

*

Mexican economy grows more than expected in Q3

*

Brazilian ministers pledge to strengthen fiscal framework

*

Brazil's WEG slides after Q3 net profit disappoints

*

South Africa forecasts wider deficits, higher debt

*

MSCI Latam stocks index down 1%, FX off 0.7%

(Updated at 3:20 p.m. ET)

By Johann M Cherian and Ankika Biswas

Oct 30 (Reuters) - Most currencies in Latin America

depreciated on Wednesday, with Mexico's peso touching levels not

seen in more than two years, on uncertainty around the

implications of a domestic judicial overhaul and the Nov. 5 U.S.

presidential election.

MSCI's index tracking currencies in Latin America

lost 0.7% against the dollar to touch

levels last seen in early August.

Mexico's peso dropped for the fourth straight day,

down 0.7% and hovering above 20-to-the-dollar. In the latest

development following a recent judicial reform, Mexican Supreme

Court Justice Alfredo Gutierrez said he will resign from the

court at the end of August 2025.

"The first shock was a few months ago with the elections,

when they delivered majorities in both houses of Congress, which

means they have access to changing the Constitution," said

Eduardo Ordonez Bueso, an emerging markets debt portfolio

manager at BankInvest.

"Now people are thinking more in terms of the 'Trump trade'

- the idea that (former U.S. President Donald) Trump will most

likely win the elections and how he could point his finger at

Mexico again."

The peso is among the top underperformers in the region,

down over 15% on a year-to-date basis, with analysts expecting a

Donald Trump victory to quickly weaken the peso to more than

21-per-dollar.

Republican candidate Donald Trump has threatened tariffs on

the region's second-largest economy, with a 200% surcharge on

vehicles imported from Mexico.

Even as preliminary estimates showed Mexico's third-quarter

economic performance was better-than-expected, analysts expect

another interest-rate cut in November from the country's central

bank.

Chile's peso was the worst-hit, down 0.8% against

the dollar and hitting an over two-month low. Data showed

manufacturing production in the world's largest copper producer

in September dropped 1.1% year-on-year.

The Colombian peso weakened 0.6% to a one-year low,

while Peru's sol edged up 0.1%.

Brazil's real slipped nearly 0.1% against the dollar

to a two-month low.

The country's ministers pledged to strengthen fiscal

framework, trying to ease market concerns as they prepared to

debate how to proceed with a fiscal adjustment that is expected

to include spending cuts.

Concerns about fiscal instability have plagued the real,

which is down nearly 16% so far this year despite interest rate

hikes by Brazil's central bank.

Meanwhile, data showed Brazil created a net 247,818 formal

jobs in September, the most new jobs posted since February and

above analysts' estimates.

MSCI's index tracking regional stocks

declined 1% to hit more than a two-month low.

Brazil's Bovespa equities index was flat, with WEG

down nearly 5% after the maker of motors reported

third-quarter net income below estimates.

Elsewhere, South Africa's government forecast wider budget

deficits and higher debt over the next three years, even as it

anticipated better growth prospects.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is "doubling down" on its

multi-billion dollar plan to overhaul its economy and cut the

kingdom's dependence on oil.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

MSCI Emerging Markets 1127.58 -0.78

MSCI LatAm 2143.6 -0.95

Brazil Bovespa 130704.56 -0.02

Mexico IPC 50938.35 -0.45

Chile IPSA 6565.76 -1.6

Argentina Merval 1834921.61 -0.581

Colombia COLCAP 1354.97 1.16

Brazil real 5.7625 -0.06

Mexico peso 20.181 -0.66

Chile peso 961.9 -0.82

Colombia peso 4416.5 -0.56

Peru sol 3.765 0.13

Argentina peso (interbank) 988.5 -0.05

Argentina peso (parallel) 1160 3.02

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