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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX perk up on weaker dollar, trade, Middle East geopolitical tensions mount
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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX perk up on weaker dollar, trade, Middle East geopolitical tensions mount
Jun 12, 2025 1:30 PM

*

Latam FX up 0.1%, stocks flat

*

Monthly retail sales volumes in Brazil drop 0.4% in April

*

Peru interest rate decision later in the day

*

Israeli assets slide as geopolitical situation

deteriorates

(Updates to mid-session prices)

By Nikhil Sharma and Pranav Kashyap

June 12 (Reuters) -

Latin American currencies inched higher on Thursday, buoyed

by a weakening dollar, yet a complex web of global trade

uncertainty and geopolitical tensions tempered overall

sentiment.

The U.S. dollar languished around a three-year low,

still reeling from a softer-than-expected producer price

inflation print and Wednesday's underwhelming consumer price

rise.

The greenback faced additional pressure after President

Donald Trump's announcement that U.S. personnel would be moved

out from the Middle East due to escalating tensions.

The sparse details surrounding the U.S.-China

preliminary trade truce, agreed upon earlier in the week, did

little to bolster the dollar.

"It increasingly looks like higher volatility is

returning as we approach the July 9th deadlines and as the real

economic impact of the tariffs starts to filter through to the

hard data," said Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger

Group.

The Trump's second term has significantly altered the

global trade landscape, sparking questions about global growth

and challenging the long-held dominance of U.S. assets in

investment portfolios.

"The tariff drama is here to stay," Chapman added.

This shift has, in turn, fueled interest in Latin

American assets, which boast lower valuations and attractive

bond yields.

In Brazil, the real slipped 0.1% against the dollar.

The government anticipates an annual fiscal boost of about

40 billion reais ($7.22 billion) from a new set of measures

formally submitted to Congress.

This comes on the heels of a contentious tax hike rollback

on certain credit, foreign exchange, and private pension

operations, which had triggered a strong backlash - the real

fell 1.2% on the day the plans were announced.

Mexico's local equity index and the peso were

largely steady. The central bank, in its biannual stability

report on Wednesday, acknowledged the country's financial system

demonstrated "resilience" despite enduring challenges such as

rising inflation and stagnant growth.

In Colombia, which is grappling with fiscal and political

turmoil, the peso rose 0.4%, while its main stock index

fell 0.7%. The government is considering a

multi-billion-dollar debt increase this year to address a

widening fiscal deficit.

Chile's peso rose 0.4% ahead of an interest rate

decision next week, with traders anticipating no change. The

Santiago stock index inched up 0.1%.

In Buenos Aires, the main stock index rose 0.7%

ahead of inflation data.

Peru's central bank will announce its rate decision later on

Thursday, and is also expected to hold steady, at 4.50%. The

Peruvian sol rose 0.4%.

Meanwhile, Israel's assets came under pressure as the

regional geopolitical situation appeared to be deteriorating and

as political instability deepened.

The country's five-year credit default swaps rose nine basis

points from Wednesday's close, to reach 107 bps, according to

S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Israel's blue-chip index plummeted 1.6%. Its

100-year bond, which matures in 2120, fell by more than 1 cent

on the dollar.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

MSCI Emerging Markets 1204.24 -0.39

MSCI LatAm 2284.03 -0.09

Brazil Bovespa 137509.54 0.28

Mexico IPC 57825.01 0.1

Argentina Merval 2186844.1 0.717

7

Chile IPSA 8271.59 -0.58

Colombia COLCAP 1648.38 -0.66

Brazil real 5.5432 -0.13

Mexico peso 18.919 -0.07

Chile peso 930.16 0.38

Colombia peso 4159.5 0.41

Peru sol 3.608 0.39

Argentina peso (interbank) 1184 -0.17

Argentina peso (parallel) 1170 1.71

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