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EMERGING MARKETS-Most Latam FX slip at start of data-heavy week, oil prices weigh
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EMERGING MARKETS-Most Latam FX slip at start of data-heavy week, oil prices weigh
Nov 3, 2024 1:08 PM

*

Azul ( AZUL ) reaches deal with bondholders for additional

financing

*

Mexico's Cemex lowers core earnings guidance for Q3

*

Country risk index for Argentina falls to over 5-year low

(Updated at 4:15 p.m. ET)

By Johann M Cherian

Oct 28 (Reuters) - Currencies of most Latin American

economies slipped on Monday as investors awaited a string of

country-specific data reports throughout the week, while

Colombia's peso fell to levels not seen in more than a year,

tracking weak crude prices.

MSCI's Latam currencies index slipped 0.3%

as of 4:15 p.m. ET, led by oil exporters Colombia's peso

and Mexico's peso after crude oil prices slid 5% as the

Middle East tensions appeared to have subsided briefly. The

currencies were down 0.3% and 0.4% against the dollar,

respectively.

Colombia's interest-rate decision is also due on Oct. 31,

with a Reuters poll predicting a sped-up monetary policy easing.

Goldman Sachs analysts expect a 50-basis-point rate cut. "We

think that the recent inflation and activity prints, a weaker

currency tracking at its lowest level in a year, and recent

market-unsettling domestic developments are consistent with a

moderate 50-bps cut," they said.

Among others, Brazil's real slipped 0.1% against

the dollar ahead of Thursday's September budget data. Concerns

around the country's fiscal stability had sparked a sell-off in

the real earlier in the year, making it one among currencies

with the steepest declines in the region.

Sentiment also remained weak as markets dialed back

expectations for another 50-bps cut by the Federal Reserve in

November, which has put the greenback on track for its sharpest

monthly rise since April 2022.

Markets also braced for the possibility of a second

Donald Trump US presidency, with real-money prediction market

platform PredictIt suggesting the Republican candidate has an

edge over Democrat Kamala Harris.

Trump's policies around trade, security and immigration

are expected to undermine assets in Latin America, according to

analysts.

As for domestic triggers, Chile's employment data, Mexico's

third-quarter GDP and manufacturing prints out of some of the

Latam countries are also on investors' watch lists.

Copper producer Chile's peso rebounded 0.2% after two

straight days of losses, while Peru's sol was up 0.1%

after hitting a one-month high in early trade.

Over the weekend, Chile's moderate right made gains in

regional elections while President Gabriel Boric's coalition

avoided crushing defeat, pointing to a return to less polarized

politics ahead of the 2025 presidential election.

Meanwhile, Argentina's closely-watched country risk index, a

reflection of how investors view the country's debt, fell to its

lowest level since the middle of 2019, reflecting rising market

optimism in libertarian President Javier Milei's government.

MSCI's gauge for regional equities edged up

0.5%, with Brazil's Bovespa climbing 1%.

Azul ( AZUL ) shot up 15% after the carrier reached a deal

with an existing group of bondholders to obtain additional

financing as part of restructuring that it expects to ease

market concerns about its debt load.

Mexico's main stock index was largely flat, with

Cemex losing 8% after the cement producer reported

a lower third-quarter core earnings and reduced its full-year

profit guidance.

Latin American market prices from Reuters:

MSCI Emerging Markets 1138.03 0.28

MSCI LatAm 2179.58 0.57

Brazil Bovespa 131265.38 1.06

Mexico IPC 51819.22 0.07

Chile IPSA 6735.46 -0.28

Argentina Merval 1851740.18 -1.124

Colombia COLCAP 1339.48 0.37

Brazil real 5.7103 -0.05

Mexico peso 20.0311 -0.41

Chile peso 946.84 0.19

Colombia peso 4338.25 -0.28

Peru sol 3.763 0.13

Argentina peso (interbank) 987 -0.15

Argentina peso (parallel) 1200 2.08

HIGHLIGHTS:

** Colombia's government

expands debt issuance cap

by over $2 bln

** Nigeria signs

funding deal

with IFC to boost naira currency financing

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