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EMERGING MARKETS-Most Latam FX under pressure as dollar gains, Brazil's real an outlier
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EMERGING MARKETS-Most Latam FX under pressure as dollar gains, Brazil's real an outlier
Dec 30, 2024 12:04 PM

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Brazil's public sector gross debt at 77.7% of GDP

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Brazilian real rises after central bank intervention

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Mexican peso falls more than 1% to lowest since November

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Latam stocks down 0.4%, FX down 0.3%

(Updates with afternoon trading prices)

By Lisa Pauline Mattackal and Shashwat Chauhan

Dec 30 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies fell

against a firmer dollar on Monday, though Brazil's real bucked

the trend after its central bank intervened in the forex market,

while market focus turned to the global growth and interest rate

outlook for 2025.

A gauge for currencies lost 0.3% as the U.S.

dollar index held near two-year highs.

Brazil's real, one of the worst regional performers

in 2024, regained footing to rise 0.3% after its central bank

sold $1.815 billion in a fresh spot auction.

The central bank has sold this month nearly $22 billion

in several spot auctions, in addition to further $11 billion in

repurchase deals, as the currency hit historic lows amid worries

about the local fiscal situation and FX outflows.

Data showed Brazil's government debt as a share of gross

domestic product narrowed slightly to 77.7% in November from

77.8% the month before.

"Placing (Brazil's) debt dynamics on a structural sustained

declining trend and building fiscal buffers remain key macro

challenges," economists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note.

Concerns about the country's fiscal sustainability have been

the main drivers of the currency's plunge to all-time lows this

month, prompting multiple rounds of central bank intervention.

Mexico's peso accelerated declines in afternoon

trading, falling as much as 1.5% against the dollar to its

lowest level this month.

Trading volumes were thin ahead of Wednesday's New Year's

Day holiday, with most investors adjusting their portfolios for

next year and eyeing a more cautious pace of rate cuts from the

U.S. Federal Reserve.

MSCI's index for Latin American stocks was

down 0.4%. Gains in energy stocks, including a nearly 1.5% rise

each in Colombia's Ecopetrol and Brazil's Petrobras

helped limit losses.

Latin American currencies have underperformed broader

emerging markets this year, with MSCI's gauge of regional stocks

and currencies down 30.2% and

11%, respectively.

Gains in the dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields have

dampened the outlook for the region heading into 2025, as

traders expect a slowing pace of Federal Reserve interest rate

cuts, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's continued tariff

threats and struggles with rising inflation.

Higher U.S. rates typically weigh on emerging markets,

causing capital outflows, currency weakness, inflation and

volatility as returns on riskier investments lose some of their

attractiveness.

Chile's peso was down 0.2%. Data showed the country's

unemployment rate hit 8.2% in the quarter through November, down

from 8.6% in the previous rolling quarter and below the 8.5%

forecast in a Reuters poll.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund's executive board

is set to review Argentina's current $44 billion aid program

next month, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with

the matter.

HIGHLIGHTS

* Lula's embrace of new Brazil central banker has markets

wary

* China's interbank regulator discusses bond risks with

investors

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

MSCI Emerging Markets 1078.87 -0.37

MSCI LatAm 1855.84 -0.37

Brazil Bovespa 120356.19 0.07

Mexico IPC 48965.37 -0.66

Chile IPSA 6710.02 0.1

Argentina Merval 2536966.2 -1.574

6

Colombia COLCAP 1384.35 0.18

Brazil real 6.1786 0.29

Mexico peso 20.62 -1.51

Chile peso 993.59 -0.21

Colombia peso 4414.9 -0.24

Peru sol 3.757 -0.28

Argentina peso 1030 -0.10

(interbank)

Argentina peso (parallel) 1210 0.41

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