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EMERGING MARKETS-Oil surge puts Asian currency rally at risk
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EMERGING MARKETS-Oil surge puts Asian currency rally at risk
Aug 11, 2026 2:45 AM

* MSCI's stock index falls 0.12%, currencies 0.10% lower

* Investors await fresh inflation read in US

* Singapore stocks hit record high

By Niket Nishant

Aug 11 (Reuters) - Emerging market currencies looked set to

snap their longest winning streak since May on Tuesday, after

fears of an escalation in the Middle East conflict pushed oil

prices higher.

The MSCI index of regional currencies was

0.10% lower against a slightly stronger dollar, following four

consecutive sessions in positive territory.

A weak U.S. jobs report last week lowered the odds of rate

hikes by the Federal Reserve, prompting some analysts to

question the near-term trajectory of the dollar.

But heavy reliance on oil imports makes several emerging

economies in Asia sensitive to crude price fluctuations,

limiting their appeal as alternatives to the greenback.

MSCI's EM currencies gauge, which is heavily weighted

towards Asia, has gained 0.89% since the start of the U.S.-Iran

war. A corresponding gauge for currencies in the oil-exporting

economies of Latin America, on the other hand,

has jumped 5.11%.

Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for

oil shipments, showed little sign of easing as Washington and

Tehran remained locked in a rhetorical battle.

U.S. President Donald Trump responded to Iran's conditions for a

peace deal with his own demands that Tehran pay compensation for

people killed in wars, attacks and protests.

The closely watched U.S. inflation report for July could

also put the dollar back in the driver's seat, at the expense of

EM currencies, if data shows price pressures were

hotter-than-expected.

"We think the risks are skewed towards a hot print, which

would probably drive a rebound in rate expectations," said Jonas

Goltermann, chief markets economist at Capital Economics.

INDIAN RUPEE, TAIWAN DOLLAR RETREAT

The Indian rupee slipped 0.14% against the dollar,

while the Thai baht weakened 0.49%.

The Taiwan dollar fell 0.15%. The country's exports

in July rose less than expected, but economists at Pantheon

Macroeconomics said temporary factors were behind the slowdown.

"We think this sharp deviation was due to likely temporary

Middle East supply-chain pressures, as opposed to signalling a

contraction in demand. We stand by our call for the (central

bank) to hike rates at the September meeting, as inflation risk

climbs."

The Indonesian rupiah slid 0.45% and was set to snap

a four-session rally.

In South Korea, the won was flat versus the dollar. The

country's central bank will raise interest rates further to

respond to persistent inflationary pressure, the outgoing deputy

chief said on Tuesday.

Members of the BRICS group of nations are discussing potential

linkages between their respective fast payment systems and

central bank digital currencies, Reserve Bank of India Governor

Sanjay Malhotra said at an event on Tuesday.

The move could potentially reduce the organization's

reliance on the dollar. The BRICS group includes Brazil, Russia,

India, China and South Africa.

MSCI's index for EM stocks fell 0.12%. Equities in

South Korea, which has become emblematic of the sharp

swings in AI sentiment, rose 0.73%.

Taiwan's stock benchmark rose 0.43% and was trading

at its highest level in nearly three weeks.

Foreign investors sold Asian equities on a net basis for a ninth

consecutive month in July, with heavy selling in Taiwan and

South Korea as concerns over AI spending and chip demand weighed

on the technology-heavy markets.

Singapore stocks hit a record high after the city-state

hiked its annual growth forecast on an AI-powered boost.

Later in the day, focus will shift to Latin America. Investors

are still waiting for clarity on how the destructive earthquake

that killed at least 164 people and caused widespread damage in

Colombia could affect the country's economy.

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