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EMERGING MARKETS-Rate-cut optimism lifts Latam stocks, FX; c.bank decisions on tap
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EMERGING MARKETS-Rate-cut optimism lifts Latam stocks, FX; c.bank decisions on tap
May 6, 2024 1:21 PM

(For a Reuters live blog on U.S., UK and European stock

markets, click or type LIVE/ in a news window.)

*

Panama bonds rise after business-friendly Mulino wins

presidency

*

Petrobras up as diesel loaded in India after delay

*

Ecopetrol shares inch up on offshore wind auction

speculation

*

Stocks up 0.3%, FX adds 0.2%

(Updated at 1924 GMT)

By Shubham Batra and Johann M Cherian

May 6 (Reuters) - Latin American stocks and currencies

extended gains on Monday as the dollar slid on revived hopes of

U.S. interest rate cuts this year, while caution prevailed ahead

of monetary policy decisions by central banks in the region

expected later in the week.

MSCI's gauge for Latin American stocks rose

0.3%, hitting more than a three-week high, while the currencies

index was up 0.2%.

The dollar weakened as traders priced in close to two

U.S. interest rate cuts this year in the wake of data on Friday

that showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April

and annual wage gains cooled.

The Brazilian real was hovering near

three-week highs ahead of a Copom rate decision on Wednesday

where economists polled by Reuters expect at least a 25 basis

point rate cut to 10.5%, while oil producer Mexico's peso

advanced 0.7% tracking higher crude prices.

Banxico is expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at

11% on Thursday. Expectations are that headline inflation ticked

up in April even as the core inflation index eases as per a

Reuters poll.

Copper producer Peru's sol was flat with markets

expectant of a 25 basis point rate cut from the domestic central

bank later in the week.

"This week markets will be focused on trying to gauge to

what extent central banks are willing to continue on the easing

cycle or if they are willing to pause and wait for the Fed,"

said Juan Ruiz, economist at BBVA Research.

Speaking on inflation Ruiz added, "An overarching theme in

many countries in the region, is food inflation is coming down

more quickly and is well within the objectives of the central

banks, but it is inflation for services that has proven to be

more sticky."

Most Latam currencies have come under pressure this year as

several countries began interest rate-cutting cycles early to

spur their economies even as the Fed kept rates elevated due to

sticky U.S. inflation and resilience in the world's largest

economy.

On the day, Chile's peso surged 0.9%, outperforming

regional peers.

The technical team of Colombia's central bank slightly

raised its inflation forecast for this year to 5.5% from 5.4%.

The Colombian peso was trading 0.2% higher.

On the equities side, Argentina's Merval index led

gains, surging 2.1%.

Brazil's Bovespa was flat, though Petrobras

gained 0.7% after the energy major loaded diesel from

India on a Suezmax crude oil tanker after a month-long delay,

the first such shipment from India in more than a year, amid

volatile freight rates for clean product tankers.

Ecopetrol climbed 0.4% after Reuters reported that

Colombia's majority state-owned energy company is analyzing its

potential direct participation in the Andean country's

first-ever offshore wind auction.

Elsewhere, Panama's eurobonds rose, a day after former

security minister Jose Raul Mulino won a presidential poll and

said his government would be pro-investment and pro-business and

that the Central American country would honor its debts.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1926 GMT:

Latin American market

prices from Reuters

Stock indexes Latest Daily %

change

MSCI Emerging Markets 1067.54 0.57

MSCI LatAm 2498.09 0.37

Brazil Bovespa 128535.12 0.02

Mexico IPC 57356.62 0.39

Chile IPSA 6516.65 -0.65

Argentina MerVal 1482969.66 2.133

Colombia COLCAP 1383.27 -0.17

Currencies Latest Daily %

change

Brazil real 5.0723 -0.07

Mexico peso 16.8773 0.49

Chile peso 929.7 0.91

Colombia peso 3892.21 0.27

Peru sol 3.7151 -0.07

Argentina peso 880.0000 -0.11

(interbank)

Argentina peso 1025 1.46

(parallel)

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