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EMERGING MARKETS-Rupiah, Korean won decline after central banks' surprise decisions
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EMERGING MARKETS-Rupiah, Korean won decline after central banks' surprise decisions
Jan 15, 2025 9:36 PM

*

South Korea holds rates at 3.00%

*

Korean stocks at near 1-week high

*

Rupiah slips to 6-month low

By Sneha Kumar and Sameer Manekar

Jan 16 (Reuters) - The Indonesian rupiah hit a more than

six-month low on Thursday while the South Korean won snapped a

three-day winning streak after both countries' central banks

shocked investors by eschewing widely anticipated interest rate

calls.

The rupiah slipped 0.4% to 16,383 per dollar, a level not

seen since early July last year, extending a decline from the

previous day when Bank Indonesia slashed its benchmark interest

rate by 25 basis points, against expectations of no change to

policy.

"The surprise decision to pivot back to rate cuts in the

face of FX pressures seems abrupt and incongruous with BI's

prioritisation of IDR stability over the past two years,"

analysts at Barclays said.

They expect the rupiah to test the 16,500 mark by the end of

the first quarter.

Jonathan Koh, Asia economist and FX analyst at Standard

Chartered, said BI's retention of the language on maintaining

rupiah stability "may allay some, but not all, concerns over

whether it is more focused on supporting growth or keeping the

IDR stable."

"Even if BI remains focused on attracting USD inflows,

investor conviction to long IDR versus the USD may be soft.

Moreover, foreign bond positioning is already neutral."

The South Korean won declined 0.2%, slipping from

a one-week high, after the Bank of Korea held interest rates

unexpectedly against economists' expectations of a quarter-point

cut.

Foreign exchange risks could be a concern for the Bank of

Korea, Maybank analysts said. "Regardless, upside risks remain

for USDKRW given U.S. tariffs threats linger on the horizon."

The surprising decision by the BOK and BI underscores

challenges faced by Asian central banks as they try to spur

growth and defend their currencies against a towering dollar

while preparing for tariffs from the incoming administration of

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Equities in Seoul, however, rose 1% to a nearly

one-week high.

Most other Asian currencies found support from a

depreciating dollar which stood just under recent peaks after

cooling U.S. inflation data knocked down bond yields.

An index of emerging market currencies edged

higher, continuing on its recovery path from a six-month low

touched earlier in the week.

While a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the January

28-29 meeting is still unlikely to happen, markets are pricing

in a rate cut in June this year.

A resilient economy, the threat of broad tariffs on imported

goods and mass deportations of undocumented immigrants - actions

that are deemed inflationary - had led the Fed to project a

shallower rate-cut path this year.

Singaporean equities rose 0.7%, its first gain in six

sessions, while stocks in the Philippines advanced 1.3%.

Taiwanese stocks leapt 2.6% ahead of the earnings

report from the largest contract chipmaker in the world, Taiwan

Semiconductor Manufacturing Co ( TSM ), that is expected to

post a jump due to surging demand.

Elsewhere, the Israeli shekel rose to its highest

level in a month after news of a ceasefire agreement between

Israel and Hamas.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** Japan wholesale inflation steady near 4%, keeps alive BOJ

rate-hike chance

** Detained South Korea's Yoon will not attend questioning,

lawyer says

** Vietnam considers removing barriers for China-made COMAC

aircraft to operate in the country

Asian

stocks and

currencies

at 0357 GMT

COUNTRY FX RIC FX FX INDEX STOCKS STOCKS

DAILY YTD % DAILY % YTD %

%

Japan +0.44 +0.90 0.40 -3.25

China 0.00 -0.44 0.21 -3.52

India -0.09 -0.95 0.71 -1.13

Indonesia -0.34 -1.71 0.57 0.56

Malaysia +0.04 -0.60 0.13 -4.76

Philippines +0.26 -0.69 1.32 -1.76

S.Korea -0.18 +1.03 1.02 5.12

Singapore -0.02 -0.15 0.73 0.33

Taiwan +0.34 -0.52 2.61 0.29

Thailand -0.01 -0.82 -0.23 -3.58

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