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EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks, FX flat with China's 'Third Plenum', possible Trump 2.0 in focus
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EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks, FX flat with China's 'Third Plenum', possible Trump 2.0 in focus
Jul 16, 2024 2:50 AM

(Updated at 0910 GMT)

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S&P to wait until August to make key Kenya rating call

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Hungary central banker says July rate cut an "open

question"

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Thailand approves $2.8 bln soft loan scheme for commercial

banks

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S.Africa to cut interest rates in September, Poll shows

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Stocks off 0.2%, FX flat

By Johann M Cherian

July 16 (Reuters) - Most emerging markets stocks and

currencies were flat to slightly lower on Tuesday, as investors

awaited details on reforms out of China and assessed the

implications of a second Donald Trump presidency in the U.S.

MSCI's index tracking bourses in developing economies

slipped 0.2%.

China's Shanghai stock index closed flat, while Hong

Kong stocks notched its second-straight day in losses.

Caution loomed with the 'Third Plenum' under way, at the end of

which markets expect the Communist Party to outline reforms to

support the local embattled economy.

Investors were also focused on the fallout on inflation and

trade in developing economies if former President Donald Trump

wins a second term.

"It would be perfectly reasonable to argue that Trump 2.0

would be negative for export oriented EM economies, in

particular those that rely strongly on China," Piotr Matys,

senior FX analyst at In Touch Capital Markets.

Matys said Trump's fiscal policies are seen as inflationary,

which would limit scope for manoeuvre for the Federal Reserve.

An index tracking currencies was not trading

far from the flat mark. The index has been trading tepidly over

the past six weeks as uncertainty looms on the timing of the

interest-rate cut.

In central and eastern Europe, Hungary's forint

was flat relative to the euro. A possible further small

reduction in Hungary's base rate is an "open question" for the

central bank at its policy meeting next week, Deputy Governor

Barnabas Virag said.

South Africa's rand edged up 0.2%, from a 1.4% drop

in the previous session. A Reuters poll showed the domestic

central bank might cut rates by 25 basis points in September as

inflation cools.

Kenya's shilling weakened 0.3% against the euro,

while yield on 5-year sovereign bonds climbed 15

basis points (bps).

Ratings agency S&P Global said it plans to wait until a

scheduled review date on Aug. 23 to decide whether to cut the

east-African nation's sovereign credit rating.

Against the backdrop of a slow economic recovery, Thailand's

cabinet approved a $2.8 billion soft loan scheme where

commercial banks could lend to borrowers at below-market rates.

The baht was flat against the dollar, while local

equities lost 0.5%.

A stress test of banking systems in Zambia, Ghana, Rwanda,

Morocco and Mauritius found some lenders in the region could

face collapse if nature loss slashes the profits of agriculture

and forestry firms they have lent to.

Rwanada's franc was muted against the euro, as

early results from presidential elections put incumbent Paul

Kagame in the lead, while Syria's pound was flat,

with parliamentary elections expected to yield few surprises.

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