June 16 (Reuters) - Euro area government bond yields
pared their rise on Monday, as inflation fears faded after oil
prices stabilised, with investors awaiting the Federal Reserve's
policy meeting later this week.
Iranian missiles struck Israel overnight, fuelling concerns
among world leaders at this week's G7 meeting that the battle
between the two old enemies could escalate into a broader
regional conflict.
Oil prices edged down on Monday, however, as renewed
military strikes left oil production and export facilities
unaffected.
Analysts said a rise in oil prices would fuel inflation, but
there were also downside risks for the economy.
German 10-year Bund yields rose one basis point
(bps) to 2.54%, after hitting a week-high at 2.588%. They marked
a low of 2.422% on Friday, the lowest since March 3.
Yields on the two-year Schatz were flat at 1.86%.
"Our base case is that the current escalation could last for
a few weeks but should overall remain contained and not spread
into a wider conflict," said Mohit Kumar, chief economist for
Europe at Jefferies.
"Our bias for oil prices remains between $60 and $80. If we
remain in that range, beyond near-term spikes, our overall macro
picture would remain unchanged," he added, arguing that a rise
to $100 would lead to a revision of Jefferies macro views.
Money markets priced in a European Central Bank depo rate at
1.78% by December, from 1.75% early in the
session. They also indicate an around 50% chance of an ECB
easing move in September. The depo rate is
currently at 2.0%.
ECB official remarks underline inflation risks and the need
for the central bank to remain vigilant.
The ECB should keep all of its options open for future
policy moves amid exceptional uncertainty, Bundesbank President
Joachim Nagel said on Monday.
Analysts argued the central bank is keen on stopping rate
cuts to avoid being in a world with limited policy room.
The ECB would pay more attention to the side effects of easy
money in the future, the ECB's Vice-President Luis de Guindos
told Reuters.
Monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and the
Bank of England are also top of the agenda this week.
The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady, with
investors focused on new central bank projections.
Citi said it expected a neutral to hawkish FOMC given the
still-large uncertainty around the path of inflation, especially
with the recent increase in oil prices.
BofA expects the Fed to remain comfortably in wait-and-see
mode.
Italy's 10-year government bond yield dropped
0.5 bps at 3.49%, with the spread between Italian and German
yields at 94.50 bps. It hit 84.20 bps last week, its tightest
since March 2015.
;))