LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond
yields rose on Monday, rising for the fourth day in a row, as
the escalating Iran war stoked inflation concerns and shifted
central bank interest rate expectations.
Central bankers around the world last week raised the alarm
on inflation risks as spiking oil prices and little hope for any
de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East dominated
markets, with global bonds coming under pressure.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Monday that the country
will attack Israel's power plants and plants supplying U.S.
bases in the Gulf if President Donald Trump carries out his
threat to "obliterate" Iran's power network. On Saturday, Trump
had warned that Iranian power plants would be destroyed if
Tehran failed to "fully open" the Strait of Hormuz to all
shipping within 48 hours.
"Markets look set to remain in sell-off mode as latest
headlines out of the Middle East point to prolonged energy price
increases," Commerzbank rates strategist Hauke Siemssen said in
a note.
Yields on the German 10-year Bunds, which serve
as a benchmark for the wider euro zone, were last up 2.3 basis
points to 3.0608%, after having risen to their highest level
since 2011 on Friday. Since the start of the Iran war, German
10-year yields have risen over 40 bps.
As inflation concerns have accelerated, central bank policy
expectations have been upended.
Market pricing last indicated an over 87% probability of the
European Central Bank hiking rates at its next meeting in April,
with at least three increases expected this year.
Goldman Sachs on Monday said it expects the European Central
Bank to deliver two 25 basis point interest rate hikes in April
and June.
"At the April meeting, only a few data pointers for March
will be available, which would render a potential hike a risk
management exercise and a sign of commitment to stay ahead of
the inflation curve. More hawkish-leaning council members like
Nagel seem in favour of an April hike, while centrist council
members should ultimately tip the balance," Siemssen said.
Shorter-dated bonds, which are more sensitive to policy
expectations, have been hit hardest.
German 2-year yields were last up 7.2 bps to
2.7404%, having risen around 73 bps so far this month. Yields on
the two-year Schatz were nearly 33 bps higher than they were
last Monday, making this their largest week-on-week increase
since April 2023, when markets were emerging from the regional
banking crisis.
Italian 2-year yields rose 10 bps on Monday to
3.0565%. They have jumped around 92 bps since the Iran war
began.