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Moves in euro zone bond yields muted
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European defence spending still in focus in "new playing
field"
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Traders pare ECB rate cut expectations
(Updates to European midday trade)
By Greta Rosen Fondahn
Feb 20 (Reuters) -
Longer-dated euro zone bond yields traded around their
highest in three weeks on Thursday, while geopolitics remained
in focus and markets awaited more clarity around the prospects
of increased defence spending in Europe.
U.S. President Donald Trump denounced Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskiy as a "dictator" on Wednesday and warned he
had to move quickly to secure peace or risk losing his country.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the euro zone bloc, rose for a fifth day to 2.558%, its highest
since January 30. The yield was last up 0.7 basis points (bps)
at 2.557%.
Yields move inversely to prices.
Euro zone bonds sold off this week on expectations that
European governments would ramp up issuance to fund bigger
defence spending.
While bond moves were muted on Thursday, 10-year German
Bund yields were on track for their biggest weekly jump since
early January, having risen about 13 bps on the week.
"The politicians seem to realise that Europe needs to
prepare for a situation where it cannot rely on the U.S. when it
comes to how much responsibility they will take for defending
Europe in the coming years," said Jussi Hiljanen, head of
European rates strategy at SEB.
"It's a new playing field altogether. It's going to be
reflected in the funding needs."
Hiljanen said however that there might be room for a
downwards correction of the past days' rise in longer-dated euro
zone yields, saying the moves were "maybe a bit exaggerated".
Italy's 10-year yield was largely unchanged at
3.633%, after touching its highest since January 29 on
Wednesday, and the gap between Italian and German yields
stood at 106.7 bps.
Traders also assessed minutes from the U.S. Federal
Reserve's January policy meeting, published on Wednesday,
showing that Fed officials discussed slowing or pausing the
ongoing drawdown of its balance sheet holdings. This sent U.S.
Treasury yields down.
PARED ECB BETS
Germany's two-year bond yield, which is more
sensitive to European Central Bank rate expectations, held
steady at 2.174%.
Investors have this week pared expectations on future ECB
rate cuts, knocking off about 5 bps from their bets. They now
price in about 72 bps of further policy easing this year.
ECB board member Isabel Schnabel told the Financial Times in
an interview published on Wednesday that the central bank should
start a discussion about whether further rate cuts are
necessary.
"Coming from her, such remarks should not surprise as
Schnabel has previously been estimating the neutral rate as high
as 3%," said ING analysts in a note.
"But what has changed in the meantime is the perception
of the fiscal backdrop, where aside from the immediate supply
implications, the prospect for larger defence investments also
argues for a more expansionary stance ahead," they added.
The ECB sees the
neutral rate
, which neither stimulates nor restricts growth, at between
1.75% and 2.25%. The bank's deposit rate is currently 2.75%.
Also in the mix, German
producer prices
rose less than expected in January, increasing by 0.5% on
the year, the federal statistics office reported on Thursday.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 1.3% increase.