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Moves in euro zone bond yields muted
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European defence spending still in focus
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Traders pared ECB rate cut expectations on Wednesday
(Updates prices before European close)
By Greta Rosen Fondahn
Feb 20 (Reuters) - Longer-dated euro zone bond yields
dipped from around their highest in three weeks on Thursday,
while geopolitics remained in focus and markets awaited more
clarity around the prospects of increased defence spending in
Europe.
U.S. President Donald Trump denounced Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskiy as a "dictator" on Wednesday and warned he
had to move quickly to secure peace or risk losing his country.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the euro zone bloc, was last down 1 basis point (bp) at 2.536%,
after earlier hitting its highest since January 30 at 2.563%.
Yields move inversely to prices.
Euro zone bonds have sold off this week on expectations that
European governments would ramp up issuance to fund bigger
defence spending.
While bond moves were muted on Thursday, 10-year German Bund
yields were on track for their biggest weekly jump since early
January, having risen about 11 bps on the week.
"The politicians seem to realise that Europe needs to
prepare for a situation where it cannot rely on the U.S. when it
comes to how much responsibility they will take for defending
Europe in the coming years," said Jussi Hiljanen, head of
European rates strategy at SEB.
"It's a new playing field altogether. It's going to be
reflected in the funding needs."
Hiljanen said however that there might be room for a
downwards correction of the past days' rise in longer-dated euro
zone yields, saying the moves were "maybe a bit exaggerated".
Italy's 10-year yield was down 2 bps at 3.618%,
after touching its highest since January 29 on Wednesday at
3.644%.
The gap between Italian and German yields
stood at 108 bps.
Traders also assessed minutes from the U.S. Federal
Reserve's January policy meeting, published on Wednesday,
showing that Fed officials discussed slowing or pausing the
ongoing drawdown of its balance sheet holdings. This sent U.S.
Treasury yields down.
PARED ECB BETS
Germany's two-year bond yield, which is more
sensitive to European Central Bank rate expectations, fell 3 bps
to 2.148%.
It rose 4 bps on Wednesday after ECB board member Isabel
Schnabel told the Financial Times that the central bank should
start a discussion about whether further rate cuts are
necessary.
"Coming from her, such remarks should not surprise as
Schnabel has previously been estimating the neutral rate as high
as 3%," said ING analysts in a note.
"But what has changed in the meantime is the perception of
the fiscal backdrop, where aside from the immediate supply
implications, the prospect for larger defence investments also
argues for a more expansionary stance ahead," they added.
The ECB sees the neutral rate, which neither stimulates nor
restricts growth, at between 1.75% and 2.25%. The bank's deposit
rate is currently 2.75%.
Also in the mix, German producer prices rose less than
expected in January, increasing by 0.5% on the year, the federal
statistics office reported on Thursday. Analysts polled by
Reuters had expected a 1.3% increase.