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Euro zone bond yields edge lower as investors brace for frantic week
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Euro zone bond yields edge lower as investors brace for frantic week
Mar 4, 2024 10:43 PM

LONDON, March 4 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bondyields edged lower at the beginning of the week as investorslooked towards the European Central Bank's interest ratedecision on Thursday and U.S. employment figures on Friday.

Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark forthe euro area, edged 1.4 basis points (bps) lower from Friday'sclose at 2.39%, after creeping 5 basis points (bps) higher lastweek. Yields move inversely to prices.

The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates at thecurrent record high of 4%.

But investors will listen for any hints from PresidentChristine Lagarde on when borrowing costs might start to falland look for clues in updated economic projections.

The detective work will continue on Friday when the UnitedStates releases jobs data for February, which will bescrutinised for indications about inflation and the potentialpath of Federal Reserve rates.

Investors will be inundated with news in the interim.China's National People's Congress, where officials are set toannounce the economy's growth target for the year, will begin onTuesday.

Super Tuesday, the biggest day in the U.S. presidentialprimary calendar, is likely to see Donald Trump cement his holdon the Republican nomination.

Britain's finance minister will then lay out thegovernment's spending and taxation plans on Wednesday, whileseeking to avoid the ire of bond markets, and Fed Chair JeromePowell will begin his semi-annual two-day testimony beforeCongress.

Italy's 10-year bond yield was down 4.4 bps at3.84%. The closely watched spread between Italy and Germany's10-year bonds traded at 143 bps, up from lastweek's two-year low of 139 bps.

Yields have risen this year as traders tempered expectationsfor big and fast rate cuts as economies and inflation provedstronger than expected.

"We are not expecting any change from the ECB this week, butthe market will look for any hints over the possibility of anApril cut," said Mohit Kumar, chief Europe economist atJefferies, in a research note.

"We remain in the June rate cut camp both from the Fed andthe ECB. Similarly, from Powell, we expect a push back on earlyrate cuts with the tone being that it's too early to declarevictory over inflation."

Germany's 2-year bond yield, which is sensitiveto ECB rate expectations, was last 0.7 bps higher at 2.88%.

Data on Monday showed that investor morale in the euro zoneimproved for the fifth consecutive month in March, althougheconomists warned of a "persistent" recession in Germany.

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