March 14 (Reuters) - Euro zone borrowing costs edged up
on Thursday as investors digested U.S. stubborn core inflation
data, while the yield gap between Italian and German bonds hit a
new 26-month low.
Investors keen on locking in returns close to the highest
levels in over a decade and increasing risk appetite supported
demand for Italy's BTPs. Bond prices move inversely with yields.
U.S. Treasury yields rose further on Wednesday as traders
speculated that sticky U.S. inflation may convince the Federal
Reserve to hold off cutting rates until after June, the
timeframe currently priced in by markets.
The yield spread between Italian and German 10-year
government bonds was last at 121 basis points
(bps) after hitting 120.30, its lowest level since mid-January.
Investors closely watch the spreads' tightening across bond
markets as they put aside concerns about Italy's budget deficit
and reckoned that a resilient economy will control the critical
debt-to-GDP ratio.
"The narrative from last week has not really changed, and
BTPs still look cheap compared to broader iBoxx," Citi said in a
note to clients.
iBoxx indices are based on the average values of government
bonds, sub-sovereigns, collateralized and corporate bonds.
"We continue to see tightening as more likely than widening,
towards 100-110 bps for 10-year BTP-Bund, but wait for better
entry levels for new longs," it added.
Italy's budget deficit was far higher than targeted last
year, but its public debt still fell thanks to strong inflation
and higher-than-expected economic growth, data showed on Friday.
"As even the budget deficit figures interrupted the spread
tightening only for one day, a global risk reversal would
probably be needed to turn things around," said Hauke Siemssen,
rate strategist at Commerzbank.
"Yesterday's ECB announcements did nothing to counter the
solid BTP spread tightening trend, which remains driven by the
hunt for carry," Siemssen said, referring to the European
Central Bank's operational framework review.
Germany's 10-year yield, the benchmark for the
euro zone, was last up 2 bps at 2.37%.
Investors await U.S. economic data later in the session.
After consumer prices increased solidly and job growth
accelerated in February, investors will look for additional
signs of resiliency from the U.S. economy.
The ECB wants to wean banks off free cash but will try to do
so gently enough not to upset the financial system or lending,
as the result of its long-awaited Operational Framework Review
showed on Wednesday.
"This outcome largely aligns with market expectations for a
demand-driven floor system with practically no impact in the
near term, especially since the ECB decided to leave the minimum
reserve requirement unchanged," said in a research note Carsten
Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.