LONDON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond
yields edged up on Wednesday, shrugging off a sharp drop in gold
and growing uncertainty on the geopolitical front, while
French bonds stuck to their recent range ahead of a ratings
review this week.
A planned summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and
Russian President Vladimir Putin was put on hold the previous
day after Moscow rejected a proposed immediate ceasefire in
Ukraine. In the Middle East, U.S. officials increased pressure
on Hamas to disarm to solidify a fragile Gaza ceasefire.
German 10-year Bund yields were up 1.5 basis
points (bps) at 2.56%, while yields on the two-year Schatz
rose 0.5 bps to 1.92%.
A huge selloff in gold overnight, in which prices dropped by
the most in a single day since 2020, briefly injected some
volatility into broader markets, but did little to knock other
safe-haven assets like bonds.
French bonds held around 3.35%, roughly where they have
traded for the last week, since the newly formed government of
Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu appeared to have reached a
compromise with leftist lawmakers over his budget plan, thereby
averting yet another shake-up.
On Friday, Moody's reviews France's credit rating. S&P
Global last week delivered a surprise downgrade, warning that
political instability is hampering the French government's
ability to get its finances in check. Fitch last month did the
same.
The European Central Bank convenes next week and is not
expected to make any changes to monetary policy. ING global head
of macro Carsten Brzeski said that since the ECB's September
meeting, data releases had been "sparse and inconclusive" and
there was an absence of external factors that might prompt
policymakers to cut rates, or signal a cut was imminent.
"The most often heard comments simply reiterate the now
familiar sentiment that the ECB is in a 'good place,' with
little urgency to adjust rates," Brzeski said.
He added that while October seemed to be a done deal in
terms of no change, traders were underestimating chances of a
cut at the December meeting. Markets reflect virtually no chance
of any change to borrowing costs in December and little
possibility of any move until next March.
The gap between German Bunds and 10-year UK gilts
hit its narrowest since March on Wednesday at 184.70 bps, as
yields on British government bonds dropped sharply
after data earlier showed inflation ran at a slower rate than
expected last month.
The Bank of England is expected to cut rates at least once
this year and could deliver another cut in the first half of
2026, based on the derivatives market.
"Traders are betting that the softer inflation print could
drive the BOE to cut rates by year-end, as this inflation print
gives the BOE more leeway to loosen monetary policy earlier than
anticipated," XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said.