LONDON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Borrowing costs in the euro
area nudged up on Friday and German bond yields hovered around
one-month highs with traders confident that the European Central
Bank is likely done with its easing cycle.
In earlier trade, both 10 and 30-year
German bond yields rose 3-4 bps to their highest
since October 10, to around 2.68% and 3.28% respectively. By
1620 GMT, the 10-year yield was up 1 bp and the 30-year yield
was up 2 bps.
Bond yields, which move up when their price falls, have
ticked higher in recent days, as investors become more confident
that the European Central Bank would keep rates on hold in
coming months when policymakers met last week
"The risk is still towards a cut but that is a risk more
than anything else," said Frederik Ducrozet, head of
macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management.
Money markets price in a roughly 40% chance of an ECB rate
cut by July next year.
Ducrozet said a speech by ECB board member Isabel Schnabel
on Thursday may have added to some upward pressure on long-dated
bond yields.
The ECB is still far away from resuming debt purchases to
inject liquidity into the banking system as it first needs to
work off more of the bonds it bought over a decade of easy
policy, said Schnabel.
She is in charge of the ECB's market operations.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has left investors
in the dark without fresh data.
Traders price a roughly 70% chance of a quarter point move,
with focus on the end of the shutdown, with odds rising on
Thursday when a batch of private labour indicators pointed to a
weakening economy.
In the absence of the widely watched U.S. jobs report that
was not released as scheduled on Friday, investors made do with
the University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer
sentiment data. That showed sentiment at its lowest since June
2022, helping lower bond yields.
Most 10-year bond yields across the bloc were just a bit
higher on the day. French yields touched 3.47%, and Italian ones
hit 3.45% - their highest since
mid-October in earlier trade.
Broadly speaking, the German 10-year yield is where it has
averaged all year. ING analysts said in a note it had "happily
mean-reverted around" 2.6%.
They think, however, with the ECB now firmly on hold, and
more German debt issuance upcoming, it should head towards "the
2.75% to 3% area".
(Reporting by Alun John and Dhara Ranasinghe, additional
reporting by Yoruk Bahceli ; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Ros
Russell)