* Investors price in three ECB rate hikes as oil prices
surge
* ECB's Joachim Nagel warns rates may rise if inflation
expectations de-anchor
* German, Italian, French bond yields climb; U.S. and UK
yields also rise
(Updates with U.S. inflation data, refreshes prices)
By Sophie Kiderlin
LONDON, May 12 (Reuters) - Euro zone bonds sold off for
a fourth day on Tuesday, as hopes faded for a peace deal in the
Iran war, which pushed up the oil price again and prompted
investors to price in three rate hikes by the European Central
Bank this year.
U.S. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was
"on life support" after Tehran rejected a U.S. proposal to end
the conflict and stuck to a list of demands that Trump has
described as "garbage".
"Clearly there has been a lot of back and forth gyrations
that we've had over the last few weeks when it seemed there was
no hope, then there was a lot of hope, then we're back to little
hope. So it's very hard to know what the final endpoint is,"
Sandra Horsfield, economist at Investec, said.
Germany's 2-year yield, which is regarded as more
sensitive to rate expectations, was 6.4 basis points higher at
2.709%, up for a fourth day in a row as prices fell.
Interest rate expectations picked up again on Tuesday, with
money markets pricing in around three 25-basis-point rate hikes
from the ECB by the end of the year. The probability of a policy
increase in June was last close to 90%.
ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Tuesday the ECB must
raise interest rates if the oil shock resulting from the Iran
war threatens to unmoor inflation expectations in the euro zone.
"Should the effects prove large or persistent, and
especially if they threaten to de-anchor long-term inflation
expectations, our mandate requires us to act," Nagel, the head
of Germany's Bundesbank, told a central bank event.
Andrzej Szczepaniak, senior European economist at Nomura,
said it was almost guaranteed that inflation expectations would
rise further, opening the door for the ECB to raise rates at its
June meeting.
The central bank will try to get ahead of so-called
second-round inflation effects like a wage-price spiral, he
said.
"Basically, the ECB will be saying by raising rates once or
twice, hey, look, we're not going to leave inflation or
inflation expectations unchecked. We're going to make sure we
get ahead of things and ensure that inflation stabilizes at
target over the medium term," Szczepaniak said.
BOND YIELDS SURGE ACROSS EURO ZONE
The yield on the German 10-year bond, the benchmark
for the euro zone, was 5.9 bps higher at 3.103%. Italy's 10-year
bond yield jumped nearly 10 bps to 3.881% and French
10-year bond yields rose 8 bps to 3.742%.
The German federal statistics office on Tuesday said that
EU-harmonised inflation stood at 2.9% in April, confirming
preliminary figures.
U.S. data showed consumer prices rose at a brisk pace for a
second month in a row in April, as the war with Iran pushed up
energy costs and food prices surged. U.S. Treasury yields rose
4.5 bps to 4.457%.
Meanwhile, UK gilts were battered by political turmoil in
Britain, where Prime Minister Keir Starmer vowed to stay in his
job, defying mounting pressure within his own party. Thirty-year
gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 at one
point on Tuesday and were last 10 bps higher on the day at
5.77%.
(Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper, Editing by John Mair,
Andrew Heavens and Ros Russell)