(Updates to Europe morning, adds comments, background and
graphic)
Sept 12 (Reuters) - European government bond yields were
on course to end the week higher, as investors lowered
expectations of rate cuts by the European Central Bank, while
focus was also on a French credit review due after the market
close.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro
zone, rose to 2.69%, up about 4 basis points on the
week.
The interest rate sensitive 2-year yield rose as far as
2.0250%, its highest since April.
Much of its 10 bp rise for the week came on Thursday after
the ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected and offered no
clues about its next move.
JPMorgan now expects the central bank to lower interest
rates once more this year, in December, from a previous forecast
of October.
Money markets are currently pricing in less than a 40%
chance of a 25 bp cut by June 2026, down from near 50% after
Thursday's policy meeting.
Other regional bond yields, like those of France and Italy,
were trading largely in line with Germany's.
There seems to be a great degree of confidence at the ECB
that existing policy rates are at an appropriate level which is
likely to support the front end of the yield curve going
forward, said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research FX and
rates at Societe Generale.
The paring of euro zone rate-cut wagers came as money
markets fully priced in a 25 bp cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve
next week.
"The most important question...will probably be about the
pace of cuts/the October decision. Powell will likely give the
boilerplate response that all meetings are live, but no decision
was made about October at the September meeting," analysts at
BofA Global Research said in a note.
The divergent outlook for the two central banks has driven
the spread between 10-year German and U.S. yields
to the narrowest since July 2023.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield was a last touch
higher at 3.557%, with the 10-year yield at 4.04%,
down 4 bps on the week and hovering near its lowest level since
April.
A review of France's AA- sovereign debt rating by Fitch is
expected later on Friday.
The spread between French and German 10-year bond yields
was last at 77 bps, down from this week's
six-month high of 83.38 bps.
While a rating downgrade would mark another step in the
wrong direction for France, it's unlikely to spur a major market
reaction as some of those expectations are already priced in,
Societe Generale's Broux said.