(Updates at 1154 GMT)
By Alun John
LONDON, March 25 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields rose
on Monday, in a small reversal of the previous week's declines
when a string of meetings by major central banks gave investors
greater confidence that interest rate cuts will come by the
middle of this year.
The main data releases this week are U.S. core PCE inflation
due Friday and flash consumer price index releases from Spain on
Wednesday, and France and Italy on Friday, though market
reaction could be affected by Easter holidays.
Germany's 10-year bond yield was up 3 basis points (bps) on
the day to 2.35%. But after the euro zone benchmark yield
dropped 11.5 bps last week, it is still is heading for its first
monthly fall of 2023.
The MOVE index of volatility in U.S. bond markets hit a two
year low on Friday.
Yields, which move inversely to prices, trended higher in
January and February as traders pushed back expectations of
substantial rate cuts until the middle of 2024, on the back of
stronger than expected economic data, particularly in the U.S.
But several central bank meetings last week saw markets
became more confident that cuts will come.
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates steady but reiterated
its projection that it would cut rates by 75 bps by the end of
the year; the Bank of England said the UK economy was heading in
the right direction for cuts; and, in Switzerland where
inflation is lower, the Swiss National Bank surprised markets by
reducing borrowing costs 25 bps.
Many European Central Bank policy makers have indicated they
expect to start cutting rates in June, and current market
pricing is broadly aligned with this, showing little chance the
ECB moves at its April meeting, but slightly more than an 80%
chance of a cut by June.
"There will be some more data by April, but there will be
even more data by June which will help the ECB's decision-making
process," said analysts at Natwest markets in a note.
They added that the data did not need to be lower than
expected to justify a cut - it "only needs to come in line with
expectations for the ECB to cut." They also said that, in their
opinion, the ECB could cut rates ahead of the Fed, a widely
discussed topic in markets.
As well as overall inflation in the currency bloc, the ECB
is particularly concerned about recent rapid wage growth. But
chief economist Philip Lane said on Monday the central bank was
increasingly confident that wage growth was slowing back towards
more normal levels.
Italy's 10 year yield was 5 bps higher at 3.69%,
after a 6 bp fall last week. The closely watched spread between
German and Italian yields was at 132 bps, up from
a more than two year low of 115 bps in mid-March.
Germany's two year yield was up 3 bps at 2.84%
and Italy's two year yield was up 2 bps at 3.42%.