By Ozan Ergenay
LONDON, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields
steadied in early trading on Thursday, set for a second straight
weekly decline, amid subdued activity across most markets due to
the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and growing expectations of a
December rate cut by the Fed.
Germany's 10-year Bund yield, the euro zone's
benchmark, rose 0.9 basis points to 2.683%, while French 10-year
yields held at 3.416% and Italian yields
were up 1.7 bps at 3.411%.
With the European Central Bank firmly on hold, European
rates have been fairly muted in recent weeks. Spillovers from
moves in stocks or U.S. and Japanese government bonds have not
been sufficient to drive significant shifts either.
Later on Thursday, the ECB will release the minutes of its
October policy meeting, while a number of the central bank's
officials are scheduled to speak.
Euro zone bond yields have diverged sharply from those in
the United States this month, as investors are pricing in a
series of Fed rate cuts over the coming year, while the ECB is
not expected to change monetary policy, according to money
markets.
Peter Vanden Houte, chief economist at ING, said in a note
to clients that euro zone inflation data still shows some
stickiness, and selling price expectations climbed above the
long-term average in every sector with consumers anticipating
faster price increases ahead.
"What looks certain is that the region's economy remains on
a growth track, albeit a subdued one. A meaningful uptick may
not occur until Germany's budgetary stimulus kicks in, expected
no sooner than the second half of 2026," he said.
"Given these trends, the ECB will likely keep interest rates
unchanged, there's no need for more stimulus and inflation does
not warrant any drastic new monetary policies."
Bund yields have risen by around 5 bps this month, while
10-year U.S. Treasury yields have fallen 10 bps,
bringing the two closer together than at any time in nearly two
years.
Major U.S. economic data for retail sales and producer
prices published on Tuesday reinforced expectations of a
December rate cut and investors bet the leading candidate to be
the next Fed Chair may pursue a more dovish policy.
In the UK, activity was also more subdued after the British
finance minister presented a budget on Wednesday that alleviated
some concern about the government's long-term finances.
Antonio Ruggiero, FX & macro strategist at Convera, said
markets took the UK budget in their stride. But the calm won't
last, he added, with the heavy use of back-loaded tax measures
raising doubts about how reliable Chancellor Rachel Reeves'
26-billion pound ($34.40-billion) revenue plan really is.
UK 30-year gilt yields, which are more sensitive
to long-term fiscal issues, were up 1.9 bps at 5.23%, retracing
some of Wednesday's near-12 bp drop, the biggest since April,
partly as a result of an expected decline in supply in the
coming year.
UK 10-year yields were last up 4.4 bps at
4.471%, hitting an almost two-week high.
($1 = 0.7557 pounds)