(Updates prices)
By Stefano Rebaudo, Yoruk Bahceli and Lucy Raitano
March 5 (Reuters) - German long-dated bonds saw their
biggest sell-off in years, the euro jumped to its highest level
in almost four months and stocks rebounded on Wednesday after
the parties in talks to form Germany's new government agreed to
try to loosen its fiscal rules.
European stock indexes recorded robust gains after sharp
declines in the previous session.
The German political parties concerned want to make higher
defence and federal state spending possible and to create a 500
billion euro ($535 billion) special fund to boost
infrastructure.
Friedrich Merz's conservatives and the Social Democrats
(SPD) will put their proposals to parliament next week.
Elsewhere, Germany's Greens will negotiate hard before
potentially giving their much-needed backing to debt reforms
proposed by the conservatives and Social Democrats,
parliamentary co-leader Katharina Droege said on Wednesday.
"It's clearly a big change. The market is pricing in fiscal
risk. It's part of the risk premium that before was more priced
into the UK curve or the US curve and now clearly needs to
emerge also in the European curves," said Annalissa Piazza,
fixed income research analyst at MFS Investment Management.
Germany's 10-year yield, the euro zone's benchmark, climbed
30 basis points (bps) to 2.785%, in its biggest daily rise since
mid-March 2020, at the height of the pandemic crisis.
"'Don't underestimate Germany's capacity to change' was our
hypothesis into the year and just as most people gave up on
Europe," said Maximillian Uleer, strategist at Deutsche Bank.
"Today, Germany announced a 'Whatever it takes' plan."
However, most analysts question how quickly Germany could
deploy such a large amount of money.
"It's a significant move (in financial markets) but it has
to be a significant move given the size of these packages," said
Jens Peter Soerensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank.
"When people realise this is not coming tomorrow but it's
coming over 10 years, how big a reaction should we have?"
Germany's 30-year yield was up 24 bps to 3.069%
in its biggest daily jump since October 1998.
Germany was set to raise 5 billion euros from a new 30-year
bond on Wednesday, according to LSEG's IFR.
"Higher spending is likely to weigh on the longer end of the
curve. We thus close our long duration call on Bunds," Deutsche
Bank's Uleer added.
Money markets reduced their bets on European Central Bank
rate cuts, pricing in a depo rate of 2.02% in December
from 1.92% late Tuesday.
Germany's 2-year yield, more sensitive to ECB
policy rates, rose 23 bps to 2.241%, its biggest daily jump
since March 2023.
"This proposal (to loosen the debt brake) could ultimately
mean even more new debt than the earlier media reports about a
combined 900 billion euros package for defence and investment,"
said Christoph Rieger, rate strategist at Commerzbank, saying
that "the military component is in principle unlimited".
The EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on
Tuesday the EU will activate the escape clause of the stability
and growth pact, removing limits on defence spending.
"Moreover, the measures could also give the future
governments more fiscal space beyond military and investment in
the upcoming budgets," Commerzbank's Rieger added.
The spread between the risk-free 10-year overnight index
swap (OIS) and Bund yields dropped to -23 bps, its
lowest level since August 2010.
The yield gap between Italian and German debt
widened to 105.1 bps after dropping below 100 bps for the first
time since 2021 early in the session.
"What's changed is there is more convergence now because
there's less bearishness about Germany. Everyone was obsessed
with German deindustrialization, and the German economy was
fundamentally broken, there was no way back," said Dario
Perkins, managing director, global macro at TS Lombard.
"That narrative is changing, and that's just changing the
interest rate, growth differentials within the euro area."
Joint European Union borrowing for new investments will be
crucial to support government bonds for highly indebted
countries, like Italy and France.
The single currency jumped as investors eyed the prospective
increases in fiscal spending, which could boost the economy.
The euro was up 1.4% at $1.0771 at its highest level
since early November, having risen more than 3.7% since Monday.
Its rise against the yen was more moderate, climbing 0.5% to
160.01.