(Updates at 1614 GMT)
By Stefano Rebaudo
Nov 12 (Reuters) - Euro zone yields were steady on
Tuesday, having earlier dropped to their lowest in over a week
after a survey showed German investor morale worsened in
November on concerns that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's
proposed policies could hurt Europe.
The uncertainty unleashed by Trump's election victory and
the collapse of the German government sapped investor morale
this month, the ZEW Institute's survey found.
"Investor sentiment fell notably in November in response to
Trump's election and the prospect of US tariffs, which will hit
Europe's already struggling manufacturing sector," Nomura
economist Andrzej Szczepaniak said.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the
benchmark for the euro area, touched its lowest since Oct. 30 at
2.299%. It was last little changed on the day at 2.331%.
Protectionist policies from the incoming U.S. administration
will hamper global growth, and Europe must be better prepared
than in 2018 when Trump's previous administration took similar
steps, European Central Bank policymakers warned.
Money market traders were pricing in around 31 basis points
of easing from the ECB at the December meeting, implying around
a 25% chance that they cut rates by 50 bps.
Germany's 2-year yield, which is sensitive to
expectations for policy rates, fell to 2.097%, its lowest since
Oct. 24, and was last down 1 bp at 2.127%.
The political crisis in Germany is also in the spotlight,
with investors aware it will take time to understand whether a
new government will boost public spending to stimulate the
economy.
Germany's Social Democrats, Greens and conservatives have
proposed Feb. 23 as a date for a new election.
The conservative Friedrich Merz, who is in pole position to
become chancellor, has set two prerequisites for discussing a
reform for the so-called debt brake: having conditions for the
money to be invested in pro-growth programmes and social
welfare.
"Absent an even larger economic shock there are still
reasons to be somewhat skeptical about a large easing in German
fiscal policy under a new government," said Matteo Mamprin,
rates strategist at JP Morgan, who sees the recent "term premium
(on Bund swap) repricing quite excessive."
Germany's 10-year asset swap spread (ASW)
was at -2.5 bps after hitting -7.45 bps last week, its lowest
since at least 2003, also on concerns about a potential increase
of Bund supply.
Swap spreads, the difference between the 10-year government
bond yield and the 10-year swap rate, reflect risk appetite in
the broader financial market while being a gauge of an issuer's
credit quality.
Swap spreads on German bonds have been tightening since
March 2023 - with the 10-year at around 80 bps - when the ECB
started to unwind its portfolio of assets, increasing the supply
of government bonds in the market.
Italy's 10-year government bond yield, the
benchmark for the euro area's periphery, was up 3 bps at 3.623%,
after earlier hitting 3.57%, its lowest since Oct. 30.
(Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo, additional reporting by Samuel
Indyk; Editing by Mark Potter and Ros Russell)