April 23 (Reuters) - The euro zone's short-dated
government bond yields ticked lower on the heels of weak
economic data, but remained on track for their fourth daily rise
as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz bolstered expectations
of European Central Bank rate hikes.
Borrowing costs have tracked gains in oil prices, which have
stoked concerns about inflation and raised the prospect of a
hawkish response from the ECB.
The euro zone suffered a surprise contraction in April with
the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran sapping demand as prices soared,
the S&P Global Flash Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers'
Index showed. Business activity in the private sector shrank at
the quickest pace in 14 months in France and it slipped back
into contraction in Germany for the first time in nearly a year.
Citi flagged that euro area input costs increased at the
fastest pace since the end of 2022, and output price inflation
hit a 37-month high.
Germany's 2-year yields, more sensitive to
expectations for policy rates, rose 2.5 basis points to 2.57%.
They reached 2.771% in late March, the highest since July 2024.
"The current PMI report shows that, despite the slowdown,
some second-round price effects are already arising," said Peter
Vanden Houte, chief economist, euro zone, at ING.
"That might push the central bank into at least one rate
hike later this year, to prevent the current inflation increase
from raising inflation expectations," he added.
ECB chief economist Philip Lane said on Wednesday the ECB
would not be able to say whether the shock from the Iran war on
the euro zone's economy was fleeting or more profound until it
became clear how long the conflict would last.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield rose 2.5
bps to 3.02%. It reached 3.13% in late March, its highest level
since June 2011.
Iran tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz after U.S.
President Donald Trump said he would indefinitely call off
attacks, with no sign of peace talks restarting.
Money markets priced in an ECB deposit facility rate at
2.63% by the end of the year - implying two
hikes and about a 50% chance of a third move - from around 2.35%
late on Friday.
Italy's 10-year government bond yields rose 4.5
bps to 3.83%. The yield gap of Italian government bonds versus
bunds was at 78 bps. It was at 63 bps before the
attack on Iran and hit 103.62 during the conflict, the highest
since June 2025.