LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - Euro zone short-dated
government bond yields were little changed after wavering
earlier on Monday, as no major weekend developments in the
U.S.-Israeli war with Iran left traders to focus on this week's
European Central Bank meeting.
While policymakers are expected to keep interest rates steady on
Thursday, investors will be scrutinising their statement and ECB
President Christine Lagarde's press conference for any
expectations for the euro zone economy and what policy response
might be appropriate.
Markets currently see roughly a 20% chance that the ECB hikes
rates by 25 basis points this week, around a 75% chance it does
so by its June meeting and expect at least one such move and
potentially two by the July meeting.
That pricing on Monday was similar to Friday, helping Germany's
two-year yield trade flat on the day at 2.56%.
Germany's benchmark 10-year yield meanwhile was a whisker higher
at 3.024%.
Before the war, markets expected the ECB to be on hold
throughout this year, but traders dramatically reassessed those
expectations in March, betting that policymakers would feel
obliged to raise rates to prevent higher energy costs from
spilling over into inflation more broadly.
This week's meeting will give investors their latest insight
into the ECB's thinking.
"If the ECB signals that June is 'live', front-end yields
could move higher. However, a more cautious tone appears more
likely, reinforcing patience and limiting the extent to which
markets price in additional tightening," said Annalisa Piazza,
fixed income portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management.
She said that as financial conditions were already
tightening and growth concerns mounting, "the ECB is unlikely to
encourage expectations of multiple near-term hikes".
This stance, she said, could send shorter-dated yields lower.
Potentially offering some support to the view that rate-setters
can afford to be a bit cautious with rate hikes, anECB survey
published on Monday showed that while euro zone firms expect
inflation to surge in the near term on the Iran conflict,
longer-term bets remained steady and wage growth is expected to
moderate.
Other countries' bonds were moving in line with the benchmark.
Italy's two-year yield was also flat at 2.794%, although its
10-year yield was 2 bps higher at 3.837%.
In addition to the ECB meeting, traders also will be
watching a number of other major central banks. The Bank of
Japan announces its policy decision on Tuesday, the Federal
Reserve releases its statement on Wednesday and the Bank of
England will make its announcement on Thursday.
All are expected to keep rates steady.