March 27 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
dropped as investors await inflation data on both sides of the
Atlantic, which might provide fresh clues about the central
banks' policy path.
Analysts said the figures were unlikely to change
expectations for the first European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut,
which markets expect in June, but could affect bets on the
following moves.
Spain's inflation rose 3.2% in the 12 months through March,
just below the 3.3% expected by analysts polled by Reuters.
"We think it (Spain's inflation) is likely to increase
further over the coming months due to base effects in energy
inflation, higher VAT rates on energy and foods, and services
firms hiking prices," said Adrian Prettejohn, Europe Economist
at Capital Economics.
"Meanwhile, the tightness of the labour market suggests that
inflation could stay above 2% over the next couple of years."
Investors await further clues about the consumer price
dynamics in the next few days as France, Italy, and the U.S.
will issue data on Friday, while German and euro area-wide
figures are due next week.
Germany's 10-year bond (Bund) yield, the
benchmark for the bloc, was last down 3 basis points (bps) at
2.32%.
Leading German economic institutes said on Wednesday that
they expected the country's economy to grow by 0.1% in 2024,
slashing their prior forecast of 1.3%.
"While (inflation) figures are unlikely to deter the ECB
from cutting rates in June, the market's view for around 90bp
rate cuts this year may ultimately prove somewhat too
optimistic," said Rainer Guntermann, strategist at Commerzbank.
ECB euro short-term rate (ESTR) forwards fully price in an
ECB rate cut by June and 92 bps by December
2024.
France's 10-year government bond yields dropped
2.5 bps to 2.8%, with the gap with the safe-haven Bund
briefly hitting a fresh 4-week high at 50 bps. It
was at around 43 bps last week.
France's public sector budget deficit widened last year by
more than the government planned, data showed on Tuesday.
Analysts said France's spread volatility was limited on
Tuesday as some of the official figures had already been leaked
and flagged that markets have turned a blind eye to excessive
deficits in the bloc.
"Many eurozone countries continue to face fiscal pressure,
and upcoming elections pose political uncertainties," said ING
rate strategists led by Padhraic Garvey.
"We therefore shouldn't entirely bank on the idea that
(yield) spreads will have a smooth ride throughout the upcoming
rate-cutting cycle."
Italy's 10-year yield fell 2.5 bps to 3.63%.
The spread between Italian and German yields - a gauge of
risk premium investors ask to hold government bonds of the euro
area's most indebted countries - was at 129 bps.
It hit 115.40 bps, the lowest in more than 24 months in
mid-March.