Nov 29 (Reuters) - Euro zone long-dated government bond
yields were on track for their fourth straight weekly fall on
Friday as economic data showed a bleak outlook while a market
gauge of inflation expectations dropped below 2%.
Inflation data from France and the euro zone came in line
with expectations, but was higher than expected in Italy.
Data on Thursday showed German annual inflation was flat in
November despite expectations of a second consecutive increase.
The risk premium on French debt steadied as the government
said it was ready to make concessions over the next budget amid
growing concerns that opposition to the bill could topple Prime
Minister Michel Barnier's administration.
Germany's 10-year yield, the benchmark for the
euro area, was down 1 basis point (bp) at 2.12% and down 13.5
bps for the week.
Data recently showed that euro zone business activity took a
surprisingly sharp turn for the worse this month while German
business morale fell more than expected.
Markets have priced in a European Central Bank deposit
facility rate of around 1.85% in July. They
are fully discounting a 25 bp rate cut at the ECB's December
meeting and have reduced the chance of a 50 bp move to around
20% from over 50% soon after PMI data was released last week.
ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday that the
central bank should cut interest rates only gradually, while
Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that the ECB should
keep its options open for a bigger rate cut next month.
Germany's 2-year government bond yields - more
sensitive to ECB policy expectations - rose 0.5 bps to 2.05% and
were on track to end the week almost flat.
A key market gauge of long-term inflation expectations for
the euro area was at 1.99%.
The gap between French and German yields - a
gauge of the premium investors demand to hold France's debt -
rose to 81.5 bps. It hit 90 bps earlier this week, its widest
level since 2012.
On Thursday, Prime Minister Barnier dropped plans to raise
electricity taxes in his 2025 budget, bowing to far-right
threats. However, the National Rally (RN) warned the concession
was insufficient to avoid a no-confidence vote as early as next
week.
The possible collapse of the government casts further doubt
on the country's ability to curb an increasing public deficit.
Barclays said that such a scenario would likely push the
French/German yield spread above 100 bps, while driving French
bond yields much closer to their Italian equivalents.
Italy's 10-year yields - the benchmark for the euro area
periphery - dropped 2.5 bps to 3.32% and were down 18 bps on the
week. The yield spread over Germany's Bunds was at 120 bps.
S&P will review its rating on France's debt later on Friday.
"We have argued before that following the downgrade to
AA-/stable on 31 May, a further downgrade seems unlikely at this
stage, while a negative outlook is possible," said Christoph
Rieger, head of rates and credit research at Commerzbank.