April 12 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
dropped sharply on Friday as markets increased bets on future
European Central Bank rate cuts and fears of a broadening of the
Middle East conflict triggered some bids for safe-haven assets.
The ECB said on Thursday it might cut rates soon but failed
to trigger a repricing of market bets on future rate cuts after
strong U.S. economic data led investors to reduce expectations
for future monetary easing there.
Gold surged to a fresh peak on Friday, supported by
safe-haven demand amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
Analysts said investors are closing short positions on euro
area government bonds opened after two weeks of strong U.S. data
and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, with fears
of a confrontation between Iran and Israel and the U.S. weighing
on market sentiment.
"We do see geopolitical risks impacting markets a bit more
than usual with investors watching closely developments on
Israel and Iran," said Joost van Leenders, senior investment
strategist at Van Lanschot Kempen.
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on Thursday that
Israel would respond directly to any attack by Iran. The
Pentagon said it discussed with Gallant the United States'
"iron-clad" commitment to Israel's security against threats from
Iran and its proxies.
Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, rates strategist at Mizuho Bank said
markets were in a "consolidation phase."
"The risk of an Iranian attack on Israel during the weekend
will likely help the bid in rates," she argued.
Germany's two-year government bond yield, more
sensitive to the outlook of policy rates, dropped 7 basis points
(bps) to 2.90% and was set to end the week 3 bps higher.
Benchmark 10-year Bund yield fell 9 bps to 2.39%.
Money markets last priced in around 80 bps of monetary
easing in 2024 from 75 late on Thursday and
from 87 bps on Wednesday before the U.S. data. They also
discounted an around 90% chance of a 25-basis-point first move
by June.
The ECB policy meeting was relatively uneventful for the
market as the ECB confirmed it would be data-dependent, with
economists looking for hints about the future policy path.
"We interpret some of the indirect messages on inflation and
financial conditions as being on balance more consistent with
gradual/quarterly cuts than continuous/back-to-back cuts," said
Deutsche Bank chief economist Mark Wall.
"President Lagarde also argued the ECB is independent of the
Fed, but at the same time was clear that U.S. data is taken into
account," he added.
The Italian 10-year bond yield was 11.5 bps
lower at 3.75%. The gap between Italian and German 10-year
borrowing costs - a gauge of risk premium investors ask to hold
bonds for the euro area's most indebted countries - tightened to
135 bps.