Sept 12 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
edged higher on Thursday after the European Central Bank reduced
interest rates by 25 basis points and tweaked its economic
forecasts, leading markets to slightly reduce their bets on the
ECB's easing cycle.
The ECB eased its policy again as inflation slows and
economic growth falters, but provided almost no clues to its
next step as investors bet on steady policy easing.
"We forecast the ECB to cut rates cautiously given that
inflation in services, which makes up the largest part of the
consumer basket, is running at over 4% and short-term momentum
is actually increasing," said Charles Seville, senior director
in Fitch Ratings' economics team.
Money markets priced in 38 basis points of monetary
easing by the end of this year, compared to 40 bps
before the ECB statement. That implies one 25-basis-point move
and around a 52% chance of a further cut, from 60% earlier. The
deposit facility rate is set at 3.50%.
"The central bank changed its economic forecasts
marginally while revising inflation slightly higher," said
Massimiliano Maxia, fixed income specialist at Allianz Global
Investors.
"This backdrop supports expectations for one
25-basis-point cut every quarter," he added.
There is a prevailing view among analysts that the ECB will
implement 25 bps of easing each quarter, contingent on the
release of new economic forecasts.
The bloc's borrowing costs dropped on Wednesday, tracking
moves in U.S. Treasuries after data showed U.S. underlying
inflation remained sticky, curbing expectations for a
significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.
German 10-year Bund yields were up 3 bps at
2.13% - roughly unchanged from before the ECB statement - after
falling 5 bps on Wednesday.
They reached 2.086% on Wednesday, the lowest level since the
market turmoil of early August.
Germany's 2-year Schatz yields were up 6 bps at
2.20%. They were at 2.18% before the ECB decision.
Their premium over 10-year debt was at 7 bps,
up slightly from 6.8 bps before the central bank's statement. It
hit 2.6 bps on Wednesday, its narrowest reading since November
2022.
Italian 10-year yields, which on Wednesday fell
to their lowest level since August 2022, were up 0.5 bps at
3.54%, leaving their premium over Bunds at 140 bps.
They were at 3.53% before the ECB's statement, with the
premium over Bunds at 140 bps.