(Updates prices, adds)
Sept 18 (Reuters) - Italy's bond yield fell below
France's for the first time on Thursday, while euro area
borrowing costs edged up, having offered little reaction to the
Federal Reserve's decision to leave its interest rate outlook
largely unchanged.
The U.S. central bank's decision to reduce rates by 25 basis
points fell far short of the steep cut President Donald Trump
had demanded, and which was apparently pencilled into
projections submitted by new Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who
cast the only dissenting vote against the policy decision.
Markets showed a muted initial response to the Bank of England's
decision to keep rates unchanged on Thursday and to slow the
pace of its quantitative tightening programme.
The release of stronger U.S.
employment data
in the European afternoon pushed up the dollar and
triggered a broader sell-off in longer-dated bonds, analysts
said.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the
benchmark for the euro zone bloc, was up 3.8 basis points at
2.715%.
Market pricing for Fed rate cuts was little changed from
pre-meeting levels, with traders still expecting 44 basis points
of easing by the end of this year and 122 bps by the end of
2026. The current federal funds target range stands at
4.00%-4.25%.
ECONOMISTS THINK MARKET PRICING HAS GONE TOO FAR
However, economists still think the market pricing has gone
too far in the Fed's monetary easing path.
"Rates are unlikely to fall further from there, as solid growth
drives a rebound in labour market activity and causes inflation
to rise," said David Rees, head of global economics at
Schroders ( SHNWF ), after noting that he expects the Fed to deliver two
more quarter-percentage-point cuts by the end of this year.
"As such, we continue to believe that market expectations of
rates going below 3% are too aggressive," he added.
U.S. Treasury prices fell after the weekly unemployment data,
which pushed yields up 4.8 bps to 4.122%.
Analysts suggested that Miran's lone dissent was no accident,
but rather a calculated move by the rest of the policy-setting
Federal Open Market Committee to show unity behind Fed Chair
Jerome Powell and reinforce the central bank's institutional
independence.
The yield gap between safe-haven Bunds and 10-year French
government bonds - a market gauge of the risk
premium investors demand to hold French debt - was at 80 bps,
not far from its six-month high of around 84 bps.
Italy's 10-year yields rose in line with those
on the broader debt market, last up 4.4 bps at 3.54%. France's
OAT yields stood at 3.52%, up 3.4 bps on the day.
Italy's 10-year yields dropped for the first time below France's
earlier on Thursday.
Markets are pricing in a 45% chance of a 25-bp rate cut by the
European Central Bank by June 2026, which
would bring its deposit rate to 1.75%. The key rate is seen at
1.95% by December 2026.
Germany's 2-year yields, more sensitive to
expectations for ECB policy rates, were flat at 2.0%.