May 25 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields fell
on Monday as renewed hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the
Strait of Hormuz eased concerns over inflation and reduced
expectations of aggressive central bank policy tightening.
Borrowing costs tracked moves in oil prices, which slid 5%
amid optimism over a resolution of the conflict, even as key
sticking points remained unresolved.
The United States will either have a good agreement with
Iran or deal with the country "another way," Secretary of State
Marco Rubio said on Monday.
Money markets priced in a European Central Bank depo rate at
2.57% in December from 2.67% late Friday, from the current 2%.
They indicated an 70% chance of a first
rise next month from 80%.
"It is unclear whether by mid-June there will be enough
clarity and certainty around any potential deal to call off a
(ECB) rate hike," said Benjamin Schroeder, senior rate
strategist at ING.
"There is good reason for caution around the need for
further tightening," he argued.
Schroeder noted Europe would benefit the most from a swift
resolution to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, adding
that the region's broader macroeconomic environment remains
fragile.
Germany's 2-year yields, more sensitive to
expectations for policy rates, fell 7 basis points (bps) to
2.5671, their lowest since May 7%. They reached 2.771% in late
March, the highest since July 2024.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the
euro area's benchmark, was down 5 bps at 2.9831%, its lowest
since May 7. It reached 3.13% in late March, its highest level
since June 2011.
Italy's 10-year government bond yields fell 6.5
bps to 3.70%.
The yield gap of Italian government bonds versus Bunds
was at 71 bps. It was at 63 bps before the attack
on Iran and hit 103.62 in late March, the highest level since
June 2025.