Sept 18 (Reuters) - Italy's bond yield fell below
France's for the first time on Thursday, highlighting shifting
dynamics in euro zone debt, while euro area borrowing costs
steadied after the Federal Reserve's meeting left rate-cut
expectations largely unchanged.
The Fed decision to reduce rates by 25 bps fell far short of
the steep cut President Donald Trump had demanded, and which was
apparently pencilled into projections submitted by new Fed
Governor Stephen Miran, who cast the only dissenting vote.
Markets showed a muted reaction to the Bank of England's
decision to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday and to
slow the pace of its quantitative tightening programme.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the
benchmark for the euro zone bloc, was flat at 2.678%.
Market pricing for Federal Reserve rate cuts was little
changed from pre-meeting levels, with traders still expecting 44
basis points of easing by year-end and 122 bps by end-2026. The
current federal funds target range stands at 4.00%-4.25%.
ECONOMISTS THINK MARKET PRICING HAS GONE TOO FAR
However, economists still think the market pricing has gone
too far in the Fed's monetary easing path.
"Rates are unlikely to fall further from there, as solid
growth drives a rebound in labour market activity and causes
inflation to rise," said David Rees, head of global economics at
Schroders ( SHNWF ), after arguing he expects the U.S. Central Bank to
deliver another two 0.25% cuts by year-end.
"As such, we continue to believe that market expectations of
rates going below 3% are too aggressive," he added.
U.S. Treasuries fell in London trade with 10-year yields
down 2 bps at 4.05%.
Analysts suggested that Miran's lone dissent was no
accident, but rather a calculated move by the rest of the FOMC
to show unity behind Chair Jerome Powell and reinforce the Fed's
institutional independence.
The yield gap between safe-haven Bunds and 10-year French
government bonds - a market gauge of the risk
premium investors demand to hold French debt - was at 81 bps,
not far from its 6-month high of around 84 bps.
Italy's 10-year yields were flat at 3.50%.
France's OAT yields stood at 3.49%.
Italy's 10-year yields dropped for the first time below
France's earlier on Thursday.
Markets are pricing in a 45% chance of a 25bps rate cut by
the European Central Bank by June 2026,
which would bring the deposit rate to 1.75%. The key rate is
seen at 1.95% by December 2026.
Germany's 2-year yields, more sensitive to
expectations for ECB policy rates, fell one bp to 1.99%.