LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields moved
lower on Thursday, helped by cooler than expected inflation data
in the currency bloc the day before as well as remarks by the
U.S. central bank chief which helped bring a bit of calm to
global government bond markets.
The yield on Germany's 10-year Bund dropped 3 basis points
to 2.37%, a second day of small declines, after a large increase
at the start of the week.
Thursday data did little to move the dial with
purchasing manager index surveys
showing euro zone business activity expanded last month for
the first time since May 2023 with a stronger than expected
upturn in the bloc's dominant services industry offsetting a
deeper downturn in manufacturing.
There was also PPI data that showed a 1% month on month
fall in February.
Of more long term significance was data from Wednesday
showing euro zone inflation came in at 2.4% year-on-year in
March, after 2.6% in February. Economists polled by Reuters had
expected the rate to stay at 2.6%, although individual country
releases in the preceding days pointed to a slightly lower
number.
Those numbers served to reinforce market expectations that
the European Central Bank will cut rates at its June meeting.
Traders will parse the minutes of the ECB's last meeting,
released later Thursday, for further clues.
"Conviction for a June cut remains strong, with pricing
for overall easing this year still closer to 90bp even as euro
rates are also feeling some spillover from the US," said rates
analysts at ING in a note.
Moves in U.S. yields remain important for what's
happening in Europe, though, note the ING analysts, the gap
between U.S. Treasury and German Bund yields has been widening
slightly, moving above 200 basis points this week, a suggestion
that investors are finally starting to price in a difference in
European and U.S. policy.
"This (200 basis point) level was last breached for a
short period in autumn last year when markets felt pressure from
rising Treasury supply prospects, however, it has basically been
a cap throughout the pandemic years," they wrote.
"The last structural move beyond that level was when
Fed and ECB policies started to materially diverge from 2017
onwards."
The spread was 198.7 basis points on
Thursday, as U.S. yields dipped somewhat after
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that "if
the economy evolves broadly as we expect", he and his Fed
colleagues largely agree that a lower policy interest rate will
be appropriate "at some point this year".
U.S. services activity data also showed the measure of
prices paid by businesses for inputs dropped to a four-year low,
boding well for the inflation outlook, though U.S. private
payrolls increased more than expected.
Markets still see a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve
as more likely than not, but moves in derivatives markets in
recent days show they are becoming less confident. U.S. non farm
payrolls data Friday will be closely watched as always.
Back in Europe, Italy's 10 year yield dropped 7
basis points to 3.76%, helping the German Italian spread to
narrow to 137.3 basis points.