March 6 (Reuters) - Concerns that the Middle East
conflict could fuel inflation have driven euro zone government
bond yields towards their biggest weekly rise since March last
year, when Germany announced plans for a major increase in
fiscal spending.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the
bloc's benchmark, dropped one basis point to 2.84% on Friday. It
reached 2.853% on Thursday, its highest since February 9, and is
on track for a 19-bp weekly rise.
Money markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a European
Central Bank rate hike in December. They
also imply a 90% chance of a rate rise by June 2027.
Germany's two-year yields, which are more
sensitive to policy expectations, were down 2 bps at 2.24%. They
hit 2.259% on Thursday, their highest since March 6.
Three ECB policymakers warned on Thursday that euro zone
inflation would likely rise, and growth weaken, if the war in
Iran were to drag on and draw in more countries.
There is no "preset pace for our monetary policy stance,"
President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday.
Some economists remained cautious about expecting a
tightening move by the ECB.
"Traditionally, oil price shocks tend to
be stagflationary for the euro zone, which often motivated the
ECB to simply look through oil-driven inflation surges," said
Carsten Brzeski, head of macro strategy at ING.
"However, the risk of such an approach is falling behind the
curve, as could be witnessed in 2022," he added.
Italy's 10-year government bond yields rose one
bp to 3.58%. The gap versus Bunds stood at 73 bps. It hit 53.50
in mid-January, its lowest since August 2008.