LONDON, April 9 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond
yields rose on Thursday, reversing some of the previous
session's sharp fall, with traders weighing whether the
U.S.-Iran ceasefire would hold.
Tehran signalled there would be no deal while Israel continued
to strike Lebanon, while U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to
retain military assets in the Middle East until a peace deal
with Iran is reached and warned of a major escalation in
fighting if it failed to comply.
There was also no sign that Iran had lifted its blockade of
the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher again on
Thursday.
"When you look at bond prices it's still very much oil
driven," said Michiel Tukker, senior UK & euro zone rates
strategist at ING, adding that markets were struggling to price
the complexities of the situation, instead sticking to the
"where's oil?" playbook.
Yields on the benchmark German 10-year government bond were
up 4.3 basis points at 2.9866%, having fallen around
14 bps on Wednesday.
Italy's 10-year government bond yield was 5.8
bps higher at 3.7755%.
INFLATION AND GROWTH CONCERNS
Government bonds have been under pressure throughout the
Iran war as spiking energy prices stoke inflation concerns and
shift central bank interest rate expectations. Yields have been
sensitive to developments in the conflict, and tumbled Wednesday
following news of the truce.
Traders also scaled back bets on future European Central
Bank rate hikes, but money markets are still pricing in two
policy increases from the central bank this year, with a small
chance of a third. During the conflict, markets have at times
priced in three ECB rate hikes this year.
The probability of a rate hike at the ECB's next meeting in
April was last at around 38%.
Germany's 2-year bond yields, which are more
sensitive to interest rate expectations, were 5.1 bps higher at
2.5441%. They fell more than 23 bps on Wednesday.
ING's Tukker said economic growth concerns would play out in
the belly of the curve, especially 5-year bonds, which could
offer a better guide to expectations once any initial inflation
spike has subsided.
"Everyone's been focused very much on the front-end of the
curve, as in higher inflation expectations, more rate hikes and
therefore higher 2-year rates, but what's the scenario we're
looking at thereafter? Because rate hikes mean slower economic
growth," he said, adding that the ECB may eventually even have
to cut rates again.
Two-year yields have risen far more quickly than those on
five- or 10-year debt since the start of the war. Two-year
Schatz yields are nearly 55 bps higher than they were, while
five-year German yields are about 45 bps higher, compared with a
roughly 30-bp increase in benchmark 10-year yields.