* Markets price a 72% chance of a second ECB hike this year
* Two-year German Schatz yields rose 10 basis points this
week to 2.77%
* Two-year Italian bond yields rose 15 basis points this
week to 2.99%
(Updates prices)
By Amanda Cooper
LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
rose this week alongside oil prices, as renewed hostilities in
the Middle East prompted investors to wager the European Central
Bank will deliver more than one additional rate hike this year.
Oil prices jumped 13% this week, partly reversing the
declines of recent weeks and briefly hitting one-month highs
above $86 a barrel, as U.S.-Iran clashes in the Gulf
effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.
A flurry of cooler U.S. inflation readings helped U.S.
Treasuries outperform the global bond market this week. Two-year
Treasury yields fell by the most in a month, dropping
6 basis points to 4.14% on Friday.
Given the European economy's greater vulnerability to
imported energy, euro zone bonds have come under pressure.
Investors now see the ECB raising rates at least once more
in September and attach a roughly 72% chance of a second hike
before the end of the year. A week ago, they expected just one
hike.
Still, economists believe two more hikes on top of June's
are unlikely and some think a number of the big central banks,
including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, will not
raise rates again this year.
"As oil prices remain elevated, we could get more hawkish
comments from the central banks. Our view still remains that we
should not see any hike from the Fed, BoE or the ECB this year,"
Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar said.
Two-year German Schatz yields rose 10 basis
points this week and were trading at 2.77%, up 1 bp on the day.
That maturity is the most sensitive to changes in rate or
inflation expectations. The premium the U.S. government must pay
to borrow for two years over that of the German government has
fallen to around 136 bps, its narrowest in two months
.
"While oil prices still remain well below their latest
highs, the damage at the front-end seems to be done," said
Commerzbank strategist Hauke Siemssen.
Two-year Italian bonds performed the worst this
week, with yields rising 15.3 bps to 2.99%, given that Italy
relies more heavily on imported fuels than many of its
neighbours.
Benchmark 10-year German Bunds have fared
similarly poorly. The yield rose nearly 8.5 bps this week to
around 3.12%, almost matching the weekly increase in 10-year
French bond yields, but trailing the 14-bps increase
in Italian BTP yields.