(Updates latest price moves, updates news developments, adds
analyst comment)
By Stefano Rebaudo and Lucy Raitano
June 8 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields rose to
multi-week highs on Monday, in a choppy session, as traders
reacted to developments in the Middle East.
Iran and Israel said on Monday they had halted attacks on
each other, following an appeal from U.S. President Donald
Trump, though Tehran said it would resume strikes if Israel
continued to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Euro zone yields began the day in positive territory, before
dipping in early afternoon trading after Iran announced the end
of its military operations against Israel. They rose again
towards the end of the European session. The price of oil was
1.5% higher on the day.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the
euro area's benchmark, rose 2 bps to 3.06%, after earlier
hitting 3.072%, the highest since May 22. It reached 3.13% in
late March, its highest level since June 2011.
Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at
Societe Generale, said the price of oil, as well as heavy German
bond supply looming this week and positioning ahead of U.S. CPI
on Wednesday, were supporting euro zone yields.
Investors remain cautious about the possibility of a swift
reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which would ease energy
supply constraints, lowering inflation pressures while reducing
expectations of further monetary tightening and pulling bond
yields lower.
"With renewed clashes in the Middle East and higher oil
prices, 10-year Bund yields are unlikely to fall below the 3%
mark for the time being," Rainer Guntermann, rate strategist at
Commerzbank, said.
Germany's 2-year yields, more sensitive to
expectations for policy rates, were last up 1 basis point to
2.7%. Earlier they hit 2.734%, the highest since May 20. They
reached 2.771% in late March, the highest since July 2024.
Investors are bracing for a European Central Bank policy
meeting later this week, where a 25-bp rate increase is widely
anticipated.
Money markets are pricing the ECB deposit rate at around
2.69% by December, from the current 2%.
They also priced in a more than 90% chance of a first rate rise
this month, followed by a second in September.
"The data currently available is indeed insufficient to
assess the magnitude or persistence of the shock from the Middle
East conflict, while higher input costs are not being fully
passed through to final prices and demand pressure remains
weak," Alessia Berardi, head of global macroeconomics at the
Amundi Investment Institute, said.
"Our projections currently rule out a return to lower rates
in 2027 following the mild hikes we expect for 2026, as we see
the core consumer price index remaining around 2.5%," she added.
Italy's 10-year government bond yield was 3 bps
higher at 3.84%. The yield gap of Italian government bonds
versus bunds was at 76.21 bps. It was at 63 bps on
February 27 just before the outbreak of the Iran war and hit
103.62 in late March, the highest level since June 2025.